Can the Bills end the Chiefs’ luck? 3 questions for the NFL game of the year

ORCHARD PARK – We all know the horrific playoff history of the Buffalo Bills and their infuriating matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs who dutifully and wholeheartedly replaced the New England Patriots as their nemesis.

But as horrible as it was for the Bills to lose 34 of 38 games to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady between 2001 and 2019, almost all of that happened over the course of two decades when Buffalo was essentially an irrelevant franchise, a franchise who experienced a 17-year playoff drought.

Sure, losing to the Evil Empire with that frequency was frustrating and downright embarrassing, but in those days the Bills were playing primarily for jobs and salaries, not for a chance to make the playoffs.

This is what differentiates Buffalo’s struggles against the new evil empire, the Chiefs. The Bills have beaten Kansas City in their last three regular season meetings, all at Arrowhead Stadium in fact. But in three of the last four Januarys, when it mattered most, the Chiefs ended the Bills’ season, most recently 10 months ago at Orchard Park, a maddening game that Buffalo had nothing to lose.

Thirty-four losses against the Patriots in two decades? A big disappointment, without a doubt. Three playoff losses to the Chiefs in the previous four years? Soul crushing.

That’s the backdrop Sunday afternoon when the two-time defending Super Bowl champions return to Highmark Stadium to play their favorite foil in the NFL’s Game of the Year, which happens to be only the fifth game since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger pitting two teams with at least eight wins before Week 11.

“I think they’re two good teams, number one,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said when asked about the titanic showdown ahead. “And then when you have their winning history, it brings to me their level of poise and composure when they’re in the situations that they’ve been in this year or even last year and during the playoffs.”

Of course, McDermott did his best to tone down the heat and hype that has already started, saying, “Another football game, quite honestly. Two good teams, two well-coached teams with very good quarterbacks and people like to see very good quarterbacks play at a high level. So I think it will make for a good solid match and high level competition.

He’s right, a win or loss only counts as one in the standings, but who is he kidding? This game means so much more to the Bills, if for no other reason, they have the stigma of the Chiefs hanging over their heads, but also, they are one of the few teams in the AFC still able to defeat Kansas City for the game. #1 seed and home field advantage.

Here are three questions I ask myself before the game:

1. Is this finally the week the Chiefs’ luck runs out?

OK, it wasn’t just luck that allowed the Chiefs to win their first nine games, because they are a great team. But yeah, they definitely made progress to get them to 9-0.

In week one, they were close to losing to the Ravens;

In Week 2, they earned a favorable pass interference penalty on fourth down with 53 seconds left, which led to a 51-yard Harrison Butker field goal to beat the Bengals;

In Week 3, they stopped the Falcons on fourth-and-1 at the KC 13 with less than a minute left to preserve this victory;

In Week 8, the Buccaneers scored with 27 seconds left to pull within 24-23 at Arrowhead, but rather than going for two points and the win, Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles didn’t showed no courage and scored the extra point. Naturally, the Chiefs won the toss to start overtime because they always do and, shockingly, Patrick Mahomes drove them to the game-winning TD;

And in Week 9, Denver lined up for a 35-yard field goal, and its entire protection unit broke down, allowing Leo Chenal to block the kick to keep the Chiefs undefeated.

Consider this: There have been 34 teams in NFL history that started 9-0, and Kansas City’s point differential of plus-58 is the lowest ever as seven of their wins have been over a score of one.

At some point this madness has to stop, right? Maybe the Bills will be that team.

2. If need be, is Dawson Knox ready to be the No. 1 tight end?

Dalton Kincaid was unable to finish the Colts game due to a knee injury, and early indications suggest he likely won’t be able to play on Sunday. That could change as the week goes on, but even if he can dress, it appears Knox will have to return to the position he held before the Bills selected Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

“Dawson is the No. 1 tight end,” offensive coordinator Joe Brady said.

Well, he was. He’s no longer with Kincaid on the team, but it’s not like Knox is a bench warmer. He’s played 57% of the snaps this season, compared to Kincaid’s 61%, so he’s been very involved. The difference is that Kincaid is the primary tight end in the passing game, while Knox has been used more as a blocker.

According to Pro Football Focus, Knox was on the field as a run blocker or pass protector for a total of 187 snaps and he ran a pass pattern 159 times but was only targeted 15 times with 10 catches for 142 yards. Kincaid was a blocker 145 times and was in the pattern 223 times (targeted 55 times with 34 catches for 356 yards).

With the Bills already without Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper still in that questionable category, Knox will be needed. Last week, after Kincaid’s exit, Knox was in the passing pattern 25 times and one of his two catches was a beautiful over-the-shoulder grab for 34 yards in the second quarter, which led to the fire green from Josh Allen from 17 yards. for a good TD run on the next play.

“It’s tough to get a lot of touches and targets for everyone, but we have complete confidence in Dawson and everything he has to do in the passing game,” Brady said. “We’re fortunate to have several tight ends that can do a lot of those things. Dalton goes down (Sunday) and some personnel groups, things needed to change, but we had full confidence that Dawson could do it and kind of share the load and not come out of the game because he had done that for many years here before. Dalton arrives.

3. Can the Bills defense stop Patrick Mahomes?

He’s still a magical player, and until proven otherwise, with the game on the line, there’s no other QB you’d want to have as he already has four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this season . However, it hasn’t been a great year for Mahomes despite all the wins.

He is averaging 245.3 passing yards per game and just 6.57 yards per attempt, well below his career average of 291.7 yards and 8.21 per attempt. His 2.9% interception rate is the worst of his career, he’s been sacked 20 times, and while his 69.5% success rate is a career best, that’s largely attributable to all the throws short ones that he performs against Travis Kelce (60 for an 8.3). average, well below Kelce’s career average of 12.2 per reception).

The Chiefs rank 11th in points per game (24.3), 18th in yards per play (5.2), 29th in rushing yards per play (3.8) and 17th in TD percentage in the red zone (54.3%), so the Bills defense will have an opportunity to stifle the Chiefs.

The question will be whether they can pull it off, as the scenario was similar in last season’s divisional playoff game, when a struggling Chiefs offense came into Highmark and scored 27 points, which was enough to achieve victory.

Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich knows all those numbers, and he doesn’t give them much thought.

“I think coach (Andy) Reid does a tremendous job as a game advisor and really understands how you attack them and then adjust over the course of a game and what you do to them,” Babich said . “Obviously, Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. He’s one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and he’s a challenge every time we play him. They’re down, like everyone else in the league, and they’re still doing a great job.

“They obviously know what they are doing well, I would say the same thing here defensively. We have been running the same program with tweaks here and there for the same number of years. They have a great leader, a conductor of the offense and a quarterback, and then they have their pieces which are always the pillars.

Sal Maiorana covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades, including 35 years as a full-time staff writer for the D&C, and he wrote numerous books on the team’s history. He can be reached at [email protected] and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.