The salary cap ramifications of NY Jets’ Aaron Rodgers’ decision

Will he do it or not?

Aaron Rodgers’ possible return to the New York Jets in 2025 is one of the top topics on the minds of many Jets fans. Reported as “highly unlikely” a few weeks ago, it has now been renewed due to Rodgers’ improved scoring against Miami and Jacksonville.

As the debate rages, it’s worth re-examining what a potential Rodgers return would mean for the Jets’ salary cap.

If the Jets keep Rodgers

Rodgers has a $35 million option bonus in 2025 that the Jets can exercise or decline. Additionally, he would enjoy a non-guaranteed base salary of $2.5 million.

An option bonus functions in the same way as a signing bonus when exercised: it spreads out evenly over five years or the life of the contract, whichever is shorter. Rodgers has zero years in his contract from 2026 to 2029, meaning the $35 million would be split into $7 million from 2025 to 2029.

Rodgers has prior signing and option bonuses spanning 2025 to 2028; the amount for 2025 is $14 million. Therefore, if the Jets pick up Rodgers’ option, his 2025 cap hit would be $2.5 million (base salary) + $14 million (previous prorated bonuses) + $7 million (bonus). option of this year) = $23.5 million.

However, the empty years on Rodgers’ contract make things tricky. Zero years are a bit like “dummy years” added to the contract to be able to spread the money, but once you reach a zero year on a contract, any remaining bonuses are accelerated against that year’s cap.

From 2026-29, Rodgers has $35 million in previous bonuses, plus the remaining $28 million from his 2025 option bonus. That puts the Jets’ dead cap hit for 2026 on Rodgers $63 million.

It should be noted that given Rodgers’ current contract structure, there is no way to mitigate this dead cap hit or spread it out over multiple years.

Another possibility

Technically, the Jets and Rodgers could agree to a modified contract with a significantly reduced total salary for 2025. As of right now, Rodgers will make $37.5 million in 2025 if the Jets keep him. Theoretically, if the Jets wanted to stick with Rodgers, it could be in both parties’ best interest to reduce his salary. Rodgers may have trouble finding a job elsewhere next year.

However, the question is how far he would be willing to go and how far it would be worth it for the Jets to keep him. The lowest salary for an expected starting quarterback who doesn’t have a first contract is $25 million for Geno Smith. That probably still wouldn’t be low enough for the Jets to keep Rodgers.

Let’s say the Jets and Rodgers agreed to reduce his option bonus to $22.5 million (because his base salary is $2.5 million). This would distribute $4.5 million evenly over the next five years (2025 + four blank years). Due to previous bonuses, Rodgers’ 2025 cap hit would be reached. $21 millionsaving the Jets $2.5 million in 2025.

In 2026, its dead ceiling charge would then be $53 million (prorated signing bonuses from 2026-29 plus remaining option bonus from 2026-29). That’s a more reasonable number, especially considering what the charge would be if the Jets released Rodgers. (More below.)

If $25 million still isn’t enough for the Jets, Rodgers might be willing to lower his earnings. There is a huge delta between Geno Smith and the closest quarterback contract – Gardner Minshew’s $12.5 million. Perhaps the Jets and Rodgers could find common ground in this area. This would further reduce the dead cap the Jets would have to absorb in 2026, as well as its cap hit in 2025.

If the Jets let Rodgers go

Letting Rodgers go means declining his option bonus and releasing him. The Jets can do this in two ways: with a regular release or a release after June 1.

If they chose to release him outright, the remaining prorated signing bonus from 2025 to 2028 would accelerate to the 2025 salary cap. That means Rodgers’ dead cap fee would be $49 million. Note that in fact this lose $25.5 million on the 2025 cap, compared to keeping Rodgers, which as we said earlier would result in a cap hit of $23.5 million.

The Jets could also choose to designate Rodgers as a cut after June 1. In this case, the 2025 bonus would become dead money in 2025, but the 2026-28 money would not hit the Jets’ cap until 2026. Therefore, the Jets’ dead cap would $14 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026. This would save the Jets $9.5 million in cap space for 2025.

There’s also no other way for the Jets to mitigate these cap hits, since they all come from previously paid bonuses. It remains to be seen when they will decide to release him.

Evaluation of options

Understand that the “prorated signing bonus” part is money that has already been paid to Rodgers. It is therefore a sunk cost; that will hit the Jets’ salary cap no matter what. The question is simply when. Do the Jets want to push some of it out to 2026 or leave it all in 2025? This is a step in the evaluation.

The second layer is whether the Jets want to pay Rodgers more money for 2025. Does Woody Johnson want to pay him $37.5 million? If not, can the Jets and Rodgers come to an agreement that makes the move more palatable to the Jets?

The right choice here depends on many factors. First, would Rodgers’ return deter some of the top general manager and head coaching candidates from wanting to come to New York? This is a distinct possibility.

Would the Jets once again mortgage their future to save their present by keeping Rodgers? This is generally not the kind of approach a new general manager wants to take. We’ve seen new general managers get rid of the team’s former starting quarterback several times before. How would this apply to a 41-year-old man whose numbers have declined, among other impairments?

If Garrett Wilson does indeed request a trade, would keeping Rodgers be worth it at this point? This would perhaps take away his greatest offensive weapon.

How could the Jets fill out the roster in 2026 with the kind of dead cap charge Rodgers will incur? There’s still a big difference between $49 million in dead cap space (or possibly a $14 million/$35 million split over two years) and $63 million.

There are many more facets to consider in the coming weeks. The answers to these questions will likely have to do with the Jets’ hires first and foremost, although Woody Johnson could potentially put his foot down and force the issue one way or the other.

This article simply lays out the options and financial ramifications of each direction the Jets could choose.