The Steelers are down 3 of 5 and are collapsing on offense. Here’s why I’m not too worried

(Editor’s note: This is from Mike Sando’s Pick Six on December 23, 2024.)

3. The Steelers have lost three of their last five games and are falling apart on offense. Here’s why I’m not too worried.

Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin pointed to ineffective run defense and deadly turnovers to explain his team’s 34-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The diagnosis seemed correct. It didn’t seem worrying.

• The run defense shouldn’t be too much of a concern because the Ravens are very good on the ground.

Excluding knee plays, Baltimore is the only team to rush for at least 100 yards in every game this season. The Ravens are one of eight teams since 2000 to reach this mark in the first 15 games of a season, joining a list that also includes the 2019, 2020 and 2023 Ravens. The Eagles had a streak of 14 consecutive games this season until the Steelers kept them under 100 in Week 15.

• The two deadly turnovers Tomlin mentioned cost the Steelers 12.0 EPA, accounting for most of the final score difference. Russell Wilson’s lost fumble after a 19-yard run to the Baltimore 4-yard line came with the score tied in the second quarter. The pick six Wilson threw early in the fourth doubled the Ravens’ lead to 14 points.

These had the feel of one-off games, but it was also the third straight game Pittsburgh finished with -10.0 EPA or worse on offense. The Steelers haven’t had a longer streak in a season since 2003, according to TruMedia.

Wasn’t this offense supposed to be better with Wilson replacing Justin Fields?

The Steelers’ formula for winning – playing good defense, running the ball, protecting the ball and making explosive plays down the field in the passing game – appears broken with No. 1 receiver George Pickens sidelined at over the last three matches. Pittsburgh is 8-1 this season when Pickens has at least 50 yards, which is average production for a starting receiver. The Steelers are 2-4 otherwise.

Wilson’s numbers with and without Pickens on the field look striking.

Wilson’s EPA per play splits with and without Pickens expand even further when removing drives that ended in fumbles and/or interceptions. This suggests that the numbers in the chart don’t simply reflect a few costly turnover plays that occurred when Pickens was unavailable.

How quickly and well Pickens returns from his hamstring injury — Tomlin left the door open for him to play Wednesday against the Chiefs — appears to be the key variable for Wilson and the Steelers.

(Photo by Russell Wilson and George Pickens: Ian Johnson / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)