Parakala Prabhakar: “The conduct of elections has become suspect”

“Whenever the increase in vote percentage is large, the NDA gains more, and when the increase is negligible, the NDA decreases.”
“I have established this in UP, Haryana and Jharkhand.”

IMAGE: Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar along with Election Commissioners Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu address a press conference on the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections, in New Delhi on October 15, 2024. Photo: Jitender Gupta/ANI Photo

One of the most surprising election results of 2024 came from Maharashtra.

No one expected the ruling Mahayuti Party to win the elections.

Aside from the opposition parties, many political commentators also have several unanswered questions regarding how the elections were conducted.

“The whole process shows me that the Election Commission has proven to be biased. In the Lok Sabha polls too, there were huge discrepancies. Even today, the second phase of poll data (of the Lok Sabha election) is not entirely in the public domain. The final figures of the first phase were published after 15 days, and of the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th after 4 days, 5 days, 4 days, 5 days by the Election Commission. In almost 79 Lok Sabha seats, it has been seen that it has done harm,” said a well-known economist and commentator. Parakala Prabhakar tell Rediff.comIt is Shobha Warrior in the first of a two-part interview.

You wrote about the stark difference in the voting percentage announced by the Electoral Commission around 6 p.m. and later that night.
What made you suspicious about the vote percentage?

Reason number one: the reports on the ground were clearly against the government in place.

The result was therefore a surprise to me. To many other people too. It’s not about being happy or unhappy, or agreeing or disagreeing with the outcome.

The question is about the integrity of the process. If it’s a good process, you don’t disagree with it.

Here is a case where popular sentiment is in most cases against the government of the day, and popular opposition to it was also very palpable.

This is what PC Chacko told me when I interviewed him after the election results.

Yes, this is evident from the respective bloc rallies and respective leaders’ rallies.

Second reason. Even during the Lok Sabha elections, I followed the conduct of the Election Commission.

The way the current Electoral Commission is structured and the appointments to the commission have raised suspicions about the integrity of the commission.

If you recall, an outgoing election commissioner suddenly resigned for unexplained reasons. Then, in haste, the rules governing the appointment of election commissioners were changed, thereby removing the role of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

In fact, this appointment has become like that of any other government secretary. This is because there were no impartial members on the committee.

Now you have the Prime Minister, a Minister of his choosing and the Leader of the Opposition. So, even if the leader of the opposition adjourns, the majority is on the government’s side.

What happened during the process was when the committee that was biased in favor of the government met, the leader of the opposition at the time (Adhir Ranjan Choudhary) said he was given a huge list of names just before the commission meeting and it was simply impossible for him to check all the names. He left the meeting.

So, the appointments were made by the government as one does the appointment of a secretary.

Let’s give these people the benefit of the doubt. Even if they were appointed by the government, after taking office, they could still fulfill their mandate of conducting free and fair elections. It’s possible.

IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra D Modi and Maharashtra Governor CP Radhakrishnan with state Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Ministers Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar during the swearing-in ceremony in Mumbai on 5 December 2024. Photo: Jitender Gupta/ANI Photo

Did you feel that they were not able to conduct free and fair elections and that they were not impartial?

Yes. In the sense that the implementation of the model code of conduct has been very one-sided. They did not take any action against the ruling party, especially against the Prime Minister.

On the other hand, the bank accounts of the largest opposition party were frozen, which handicapped the main opposition.

It was during the Lok Sabha elections…

Yes, I am talking about the Lok Sabha elections. I want to start from the beginning.

You asked me why I suspected these numbers. The reason is that the whole process shows me that the Electoral Commission has proven to be biased.

In the Lok Sabha polls too, huge discrepancies were seen. Even today, the second phase of the polls (of the Lok Sabha election) is not entirely in the public domain.

The final figures of the first phase were published after 15 days, and of the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th after 4 days, 5 days, 4 days, 5 days by the Election Commission.

In almost 79 Lok Sabha seats, one could see that it was causing harm.

After the Lok Sabha elections, the conduct of the parliamentary elections also became suspect.

If you look at Haryana, the first parliamentary election after the Lok Sabha election, you will see a very similar pattern.

You will see about a 6% to 7% difference between the first number and the final revised number.

In Haryana, the ground reality was very, very anti-government.

IMAGE: Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini speaks to the media about the Haryana Assembly election result. Photography: ANI Photo

Were the Haryana results a shock to you?

Yes. This is why, with some of my colleagues, I discussed the figures. We found that in 10 districts of Haryana, the gap between the primary figure and the final figure was around 10-12%.

When there is more than 10% or more than 10% in 10 districts, out of the 44 seats in these 10 districts, the BJP-NDA wins 37 seats.

In the rest of the 12 constituencies, where the gap was small, the BJP-NDA won only 11 out of 46 seats.

You will see that there is a huge gain for the BJP-NDA when the gap is larger.

And the BJP does not fare at all when the gap is marginal.

Now back to the Lok Sabha elections in UP.

UP went to polls in 5 phases. In the 3rd phase, the gap between the primary figure and the final figure was 0.2%. In the 4th phase, the gap was 0.34%. In the 5th it was 0.23% and in the 6th it was 0.01%. In the 7th, it was 0.25%. The gap, as you see, was negligible.

The result showed that the NDA fell by 62 seats (in 2019) at 36!

Now we go to Jharkhand which went to polls in 2 phases. The gap in the 1st phase was 1.62% and the NDA won 17 out of 43. In the 2nd phase, the gap was 0.86% and the NDA won only 7 out of 38.

You can see the correlation. Whenever the increase is large, the NDA gains more, and when the increase is negligible, the NDA decreases.

I have established this in UP, Haryana and Jharkhand.

Now we come to Maharashtra.

Please note that the image has been published for representational purposes only. IMAGE: Priests in Mumbai on November 20, 2024, show their marked fingers after voting in the Maharashtra parliamentary elections. Photo: Jitender Gupta/ANI Photo

Have you also observed the same pattern in Maharashtra?

Maharashtra went to polls in a single phase on the 20th.

At 5 p.m., the Electoral Commission’s press release indicates that the percentage of votes was 58.22%. Then there was a second announcement at 11:30 p.m. He said 65.02%.

If you convert the percentage to raw number of votes, it comes to 65,97,708 votes. An increase of 6.80%.

It doesn’t stop there.

The counting took place on the morning of the 23rd. But a third announcement took place on the afternoon of the 22nd, just a few hours before the count! Then the Electoral Commission announces another figure which was 1.03% more than the 2nd figure of 65.02%.

How well does this translate into raw votes? 999,359 votes.

Now, add up the three increases, which gives a figure of 75,97,067 votes (65,97,708 +9.99359). Around 76 lakh votes!

The Election Commissioner later said that 76 lakh votes meant only 76 votes per polling booth.

Yes, people can come and vote at the last minute.

But the election manual contains strict guidelines. The first is that at the close of the official polling time, anyone in the polling booth premises can exercise their right to vote for as long as it takes. But the gate should be closed so that no one enters the premises after the stipulated time.

Second, a police officer or poll official should be stationed there to ensure that no new people enter.

The third condition is that all people in line receive paper receipts; the one with the number 1 to the last person near the gate and the last number to the first person in the queue.

You will then know how many people entered and on which stand.

One more thing. Those who queue and receive paper receipts must be filmed.

This is the rule book.

When I asked a former Chief Election Commissioner about the discrepancy between the first digit and the final digit, he told me that till late night they would get the numbers from different kiosks, and that is why the figure at 7 p.m. would be different from that at 7 p.m. the number at 11 p.m.

If this is the case, the Electoral Commission will be obliged to tell us which stands where people were waiting and also show us the video.

Following. Even when we had paper ballots with a very rudimentary communication structure, it didn’t take that long to update the final number.

Today, when you have the EVMs, you just press the button and you get the number. And the poll official only had to upload the number to the application.

Plus, they are all well connected.

The time difference cannot therefore be justified.

For the sake of argument, when you say that there were people waiting to vote, I ask in which polling booths were they waiting? They should also have the videos.

Are they saying that in all the 1 lakh stalls, people were waiting uniformly?

But the answers did not come from the Electoral Commission.

Featured presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com