The Bills have perfected the recipe for beating the Chiefs. All they have to do is do it in January

Because of the incandescence of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, there is nothing like the rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs in today’s NFL. Whenever these two match, we can to wait for an instant classic.

But more than most, it seems the Bills have the Chiefs’ number…in the regular season. There’s no other reasonable conclusion after watching Allen go on a stunning touchdown run to earn the Bills’ fourth straight regular season victory over their biggest rivals, ending their once undefeated season.

The Bills have perfected the recipe for beating Kansas City better than anyone. It’s just that beating Patrick Mahomes when he still has more mid-stakes games to play, instead of beating him with his team’s season on the line, feels like a different animal:

Buffalo’s game plan on Sunday was no different from its previous wins against Kansas City.

The Bills relied on a technically sound defensive performance that forced Mahomes to play a dink-and-dunk game and play within himself rather than take significant risks on the field. The Chiefs averaged just five measly yards per play, while Mahomes averaged less than six yards per pass attempt. His longest pass of the day was a 31-yard dart to Xavier Worthy in the first quarter.

Mahomes is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. But any time you force an electric maestro like him to play at a slower, more methodical pace and with more patience, you’re asking for perfection. You’re asking him to work harder against some of the best athletes on the planet. When it comes to the Bills, it’s also happening against some of the sport’s most successful defensive coaches. It’s a volatile mixture. You’re asking for trouble without the consistent ability to create chunk plays. And the Bills know it.

While the Chiefs were undefeated entering Buffalo, Mahomes hasn’t handled that kind of responsibility well in 2024. Mahomes is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 11 (he threw two more on Sunday ), and he had the highest interception percentage. (2.9) in his career since his rookie season in 2017 (where he only started one game). It’s starting to look like he can’t help himself, which is something the Bills know how to maximize.

Buffalo knows that if you keep the Chiefs receivers in front of you, Mahomes will give you a chance at a turnover due to his generally aggressive mentality:

Beyond the Bills’ timely defense that usually takes over against the Chiefs in the regular season, it’s Josh Allen’s signature exploits that elevate his team to the top. Against the team that almost always stands in Buffalo’s way on its way to a potential Super Bowl, Allen is simply nailed. This is especially the case when playing on the road in one of the toughest environments in the NFL for opposing teams.

On the road in Kansas City in 2021, Allen single-handedly created nearly 370 offensive yards and four touchdowns (three through the air, one on the ground) in a blowout victory. In 2022, still in Kansas City, Allen was masterful from start to finish in a close game. He threw the game-winning touchdown to Dawson Knox in the final minutes. In 2023, in a defensive battle on the road, Allen took the Bills to a game-winning field goal.

And now, Allen put his team on his back in the fourth quarter with that magnificent fourth-and-short touchdown drive to clinch another win over the other best team in the NFL:

So if the Bills have the recipe to beat the Chiefs in the regular season — a timely defense combined with a top-three quarterback doing his job — what’s wrong in the playoffs?

Well, in the 2021 AFC title game, the Bills frankly didn’t belong on the same field as the Chiefs in a 38-24 blowout loss that wasn’t that close. It was the end of the first year of Buffalo’s rise. They needed this kind of lesson to learn how to compete with the big dogs in the NFL.

In the 2022 AFC Divisional Round, Allen played a perfect game from start to finish and even gave the Bills the lead with just 13 seconds left. To this day, it’s still one of the most remarkable performances I’ve ever seen from a quarterback, win or lose. Somehow, the Chiefs still managed to create a tying kick late in regulation before winning in overtime thanks to a fortuitous coin toss based on archaic possession rules that subsequently been modified.

And in 2024, after Allen and the Bills put their hearts on the line for nearly 60 minutes, kicker Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard game-tying attempt in the final moments… “wide left.” (Bills fans, I’m sorry for the double trauma.)

In other words, Allen’s Bills didn’t necessarily do anything wrong each of the three times they lost to Mahomes’ Chiefs in the playoffs.

That’s because they couldn’t get more of a snake bite if they tried. Football is a cruel game, dear readers:

Nothing is taken for granted in the NFL. There’s no guarantee we’ll see Allen and the Bills face Mahomes and the Chiefs again in January in a game that would likely decide the AFC’s representative in Super Bowl 59. But there’s something cosmic about the way the fates of these two teams seem forever linked. Another rematch between two of the best quarterbacks we’ve ever seen seems inevitable. It’s written in the stars.

Whether this rematch takes place in Buffalo or Kansas City, the Bills should be happy with their chances. All they have to do is hope that the football gods will finally smile on them and give them a break.

This article was originally published on For The Win: The Bills have perfected the recipe to beat the Chiefs. All they have to do is do it in January