How to Bet Clemson vs. Texas in the College Football Playoff: Odds, Predictions

Clemson will face Texas in the College Football Playoff Saturday afternoon in Austin with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

This is game #5 vs. #12, and these teams came in very different ways. The Tigers finished the season ranked 16th in the final College Football Playoff rankings, but earned the 12th seed by being one of the top 5 ranked conference champions. Texas, meanwhile, was considered by the selection committee to be the best team not to win a conference title, landing the fifth spot.

This is a matchup between, generally speaking, 2 teams with strong defenses – albeit to varying degrees – and sometimes inconsistent offenses this season.

Here’s a look at the latest betting odds for this game, followed by a look at the matchups and picks for this game:

Clemson vs. Texas Betting Odds

Here are the latest betting odds for this game, via DraftKings:

Spread: Texas -12 (-110) | Clemson +12 (-110)

Total: Over 51.5 (-112) | Under 51.5 (-108)

When Texas has the ball

Texas’ offense hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, but it’s been good enough to get to this point. Due to injuries and fumble issues, Quintrevion Wisner has established himself as UT’s leader heading into the playoffs. He has a mediocre 41% individual success rate on the season per game on paper, so it’s unlikely he’ll completely take over a playoff game for the Longhorns.

The biggest question with Texas is Quinn Ewers, who has battled injury issues throughout the season and had a down year compared to his 2023 campaign. He is averaging just 7.6 yards per attempt this season, which ranks him 52nd nationally heading into the weekend. Ewers’ mobility might be the biggest issue, as abdominal and ankle ailments have limited his scrambling ability. He’s never been a super mobile quarterback, but he’s managed to run it in some key spots in 2023.

That has generally not been the case this season. He has 69 rushing yards (sack-adjusted) and has only run for 6 first downs in 2024. Last season he had 222 sack-adjusted rushing yards and had 11 rushing first downs. This may not seem like a seismic difference, but when the margins are thin, these things can add up quickly.

Clemson’s defense is a far cry from what it was during the height of the Dabo Swinney championship era. The Tigers ranked 54th in EPA defense per play this season, according to Game on Paper. This isn’t exactly a Playoff-caliber defense, although it’s worth noting that Clemson’s issues were pretty specific to the running game. Clemson has allowed 4.56 yards per carry this season, which ranks 14th among ACC teams. The Tigers were 113th nationally in EPA per rush allowed, according to Game on Paper.

This lack of rushing defense might not hurt the Tigers in this particular game, but it’s something the Longhorns should look to exploit as much as possible. Texas fans will remember last season’s playoffs when they faced Washington’s terrible defense and the Longhorns still had an extremely pass-heavy game plan. But perhaps with Ewers more hobbled than he was a year ago, Texas will take a different approach in this game. If Texas decides to take the issue up in the air, that would play to Clemson’s strengths. The Tigers finished 34th nationally this season in pass defense efficiency against ranked teams.

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson’s offense has been hot and cold this season, depending almost entirely on the quality of the opponent it faced. The Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per game this season against unranked teams and 4.8 yards per game against ranked opponents. That’s a pretty massive delta that speaks to the idea that Clemson’s offense is undermanned against elite defenses. The difference is in the passing game, as Cade Klubnik has averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in Clemson’s 3 losses this season.

Perhaps more alarming, Clemson hasn’t been able to move the ball effectively in weeks. Much of this is due to a broken offensive line, but the numbers are staggering. Through Clemson’s first 7 games, Phil Mafah averaged 6.5 yards per carry. Over the next 6 games, his rushing average dropped to just 3.9 yards.

Clemson will face an elite Texas defense in all areas. The Longhorns have perhaps the best secondary in the country and they are also pretty stingy against the run. According to Game on Paper, Texas ranks 2nd nationally in EPA per pass allowed and 11th nationally in EPA per pass conceded. UT also enters this game ranked 3rd nationally in explosive play (runs of 10+ yards and receptions of 20+ yards).

How to Bet on the Spread in Clemson vs. Texas

This is by far the most important point of all the first-round matchups in the playoffs, which makes sense considering it’s the 5 seed versus the 12 seed – it’s supposed to being the biggest gap of this round.

Ultimately, I like Texas to beat the number for many of the reasons mentioned above. Clemson’s offense hasn’t been good this season against quality competition and the Tigers don’t have a world-class defense either. Offensively, I think Texas will find enough points to get into coverage here.

TAKE: Texas -12 (-110 via DraftKings)

How to Bet the Total in Clemson vs. Texas

I like the under in this game. As noted, I don’t trust the Clemson offense to consistently move the ball against this elite Texas defense.

On the other hand, I have questions about the Longhorns in Aiguières, especially in the red zone. Texas was 12th in the SEC in red zone conversion rate this season. He scored a touchdown on only half of his red zone trips in SEC play in 2024. Backup QB Arch Manning has been much more effective in the red zone than Ewers, so maybe we see that in some places in this match. But either way, I think Clemson will get one or two more stops in the red zone and keep this game under the total.

PICK: Total under 51.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Prop Bet Picks in Clemson vs. Texas

Texas -2.5 (-120 on FanDuel) in the 3rd quarter. Texas has been a strong 3rd quarter team all season, especially against ranked teams. The Longhorns averaged 5.8 yards per play in the 3rd quarter in 2024, which makes sense considering Steve Sarkisian is considered one of the best coaches in the sport – he’s going to make some big adjustments most often after the break. . Meanwhile, Clemson has wilted in the second half this season. The Tigers’ offense went from 7.18 yards per play in the 1st half to 5.41 yards per play in the 2nd half. The 4th quarter gap is also enticing, but I’d rather bet on the 3rd quarter in case it’s already a laugh by the time it gets around to passing the time.