Russia’s false alarms raise fears in Europe

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Moldova has dismissed Russia’s latest warnings over Transnistria as a tactic aimed at sowing “panic and distrust” against its pro-Western government, with experts warning it could be designed to open the path to military actions by Moscow in Europe.

On Monday, the official Tass news agency reported, citing comments from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), that Moldovan President Maia Sandu “is preparing a plan for a military operation in Transnistria, no one can guarantee that she will not will not attempt to launch a military operation in Transnistria. war.”

RT then cited an SVR report that Sandu intended to establish “control over Transnistria”, including a “forcible seizure” of the region’s power station, and had drawn up plans to expel the forces Russians from this separatist state, which is legally permitted. recognized as Moldovan territory.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said in an assessment of Russian military operations on Monday that the efforts could lead Russia to sow “panic and distrust in Moldovan society at large.” towards Sandu’s pro-Western government. The Kremlin could also set information conditions for a false flag operation in Transnistria.”

News week contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email for a response to the SVR report and the ISW statement.

Adrian Balutel, Sandu’s chief of staff, said accusations of an upcoming military operation were false and called the SVR’s statements “serious and dangerous disinformation, intended to sow panic and distrust,” reported Romanian media Agerpres. Balutel added that resolving the territorial dispute over Transnistria would require “the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops illegally stationed on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Moldova.”

Similar accusations have been made regarding Belarus, where pro-Kremlin Telegram channels have speculated that the United States is preparing for a coup against the current regime of President Alexander Lukashenko. As proof, one blogger cited the U.S. State Department’s recent travel advisory for the country, which urged Americans in Belarus to “leave immediately” and warned of “the potential for civil unrest.”

News week contacted the Belarusian Foreign Ministry for comment via email.

Why it matters

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, fears have emerged that Moscow’s next target could be Moldova.

“Everything we do to support Ukraine also means promoting stabilization as far as Moldova is concerned,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in September. “It’s clear that people’s biggest concern here is that if Ukraine falls, Moldova will be the next country on the list.”

During Lukashenko’s term, Belarus became a satellite state of the Russian Federation. The Kremlin-aligned government’s rhetorical support for Russia’s activities in Ukraine and Lukashenko’s offer to host Russian missiles on his territory have heightened fears that the Eastern European country is being fully integrated to Moscow’s geopolitical arsenal.

What you need to know

Since the end of the Cold War, Transnistria – officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic – has remained a self-proclaimed republic in Eastern Europe, not internationally recognized but functioning as a de facto state. Since the armed conflict of the early 1990s, Russia has maintained a strong military presence in the unrecognized entity, despite calls for reintegration with Moldova, its parent state.

Transnistrian authorities have suggested unification with Russia, although the region is still internationally recognized as part of Moldova. At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly warned that Moldova could attempt to regain control of the region by force.

What people say

The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs said News week in a statement: “Allegations that the authorities of the Republic of Moldova are preparing military actions in Transnistria constitute serious and dangerous disinformation, intended to incite panic and distrust. We reaffirm that Chisinau remains firmly committed to the peaceful resolution of the conflict, without exception. A step towards resolving the conflict is the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops illegally stationed on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Moldova. »

The Institute for the Study of War said in its assessment: “The Kremlin could create information conditions for a false flag in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, likely in a continued attempt to destabilize Moldova and hinder its integration into the European Union.”

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean, quoted Monday in Agerpres, said: “I once again observe a campaign of disinformation and even hysteria. In the public space, a lie and an apocalyptic scenario are once again being promoted according to which the Republic of Moldova intends to take over control of the Transnistria region, to create military scenarios. I repeat: this is part of (Russia’s) hybrid war.

What happens next

Moldovan authorities have denied SVR claims that Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria, which was reportedly motivated by a dispute over the shipment of Russian gas to the country. In mid-December, the Moldovan parliament voted to impose a state of emergency in the energy sector, amid a dispute with Russian giant Gazprom over unpaid debts, which Chisinau does not recognize.

Ukraine, through which Russian natural gas transits, has decided to let its transit agreement with Gazprom expire on December 31, further threatening Moldova’s energy supplies.

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