Egypt: Sissi fears a popular uprising after the fall of Assad in Syria

“My hands are not stained with anyone’s blood and I have not stolen anyone’s money,” Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi told military leaders and journalists a week after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Sissi, the former army general who came to power a decade ago after a coup, has so far refrained from making direct comments on Assad’s departure. However, his remarks reflect a feeling of insecurity about the fate of his reign.

With Assad gone, Sissi may now be acutely aware that he has become the Arab region’s most authoritarian leader, with more than 65,000 political prisoners languishing in his jails, with thousands having forcibly disappeared and torture becoming a systematic state policy amounting to a crime against humanity.

In mid-December, Sisi held a briefing with military and police leaders, as well as pro-government journalists, at the Strategic Command headquarters in the New Administrative Capital, his controversial new $58 billion city. , east of Cairo.

The meeting was not broadcast in its entirety and state media cherry-picked a number of excerpts focused on two talking points: Sisi is not Assad and Egyptians should not follow in the footsteps of Syrian rebels .

Then, on December 23, Egypt’s pro-state media released a video featuring a series of older speeches by Sisi to the public. In his remarks, Sissi said: “They have accomplished their mission in Syria; they destroyed Syria, and the goal now is to dismantle the Egyptian state,” without specifying who he was referring to or who was responsible for the destruction of Syria.

‘Sissi’s remarks warn of implications of popular uprising’

– Hisham Kassem, Egyptian politician

Hisham Kassem, an Egyptian politician and former head of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights (EOHR), said Sisi’s messages reflect fears of possible popular movements against the current regime.

“Sissi’s remarks warn of the implications of a popular uprising, revolution or even the emergence of political activism aimed at instigating change,” Kassem told Middle East Eye.

A hashtag, #The_Land_The_People_The_Army, has gained traction on social media in recent weeks and is supported by accounts affiliated with Sissi’s government.

In what appears to be an organized online campaign, Sisi’s comments were widely circulated, along with worrying warnings of a conspiracy to destabilize Egypt and weaken its military, drawing parallels with the situation in Syria.

“Better than Syria and Iraq”

Since coming to power in June 2014, Sisi has focused on preventing civic unrest similar to the January 2011 revolution.

Amid an economic slowdown and growing hardship for many Egyptians, Sisi has opted for a strategy based on fear – particularly fear of the fate of Syria – to deter dissent.

Through strict security measures, he suppressed protests, criminalized them and opened more than 23 new prisons.

The regime’s rhetoric continually warns Egyptians against protesting, often citing the devastating impact of the Syrian civil war, including massive destruction and displacement.

“Better than Syria and Iraq” has become one of Sisi’s commonly used expressions.

State-controlled media acts as a propaganda tool, often inciting hostility toward dissent.

The media, overseen by United Media Services – linked to Egypt’s general intelligence services – have embarked on a fear campaign, conveying the message that Egypt is separate from Syria.

The same approach was used by Egyptian authorities at the start of the Arab Spring.

For example, on January 15, 2011, after the departure of Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, the Egyptian media, supporting then President Hosni Mubarak, repeated the refrain “Egypt is not Tunisia” to attempt to deter the protests that ultimately led to Mubarak’s departure. fall.

Similarly, Sissi-aligned media reacted to Assad’s fall with apparent unease.

Prominent media personality Amr Adeeb, who recently obtained Saudi citizenship, has warned of a fate similar to that of Assad, calling for relying solely on the army and police. Other figures echoed this, denouncing the leader of the Syrian transition, Ahmed al-Sharaa, as a terrorist threat to both nations.

“Egyptian media has reached a stage where it just fulfills orders without any input into content creation,” Kassem said.

“Unlike the situation during the Mubarak era or the early days of the Sissi regime, when regime-aligned media played a role in policy-making, they now simply carry out instructions without attempting to override them. “correct or refine them, even though this would clearly benefit the regime,” he told MEE.

Repression against Syrians

Concern over the evolving situation in Syria was also reflected in the strengthening of security measures taken by the Egyptian authorities towards Syrians, most of them refugees, residing in Egypt.

In Cairo, when members of the Syrian community took to the streets to celebrate the fall of Assad, they were arrested on the pretext of demonstrating without permission.

The underlying motive seemed to extend beyond simple legal considerations.

A recent report by French media outlet African Intelligence revealed that leaders of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service and the National Security Agency held meetings with representatives of the Syrian community, warning them against participating in protests called by Sharaa.

According to African Intelligence, the message from the security services was: “Stay at home and report any potential gatherings, otherwise you risk being arrested or deported.”

Meanwhile, the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), a leading human rights group, reported earlier this week that Egyptian authorities had issued deportation orders against approximately three detained Syrians at the police station on October 1st.

Furthermore, it was revealed that other detainees are being held in various police premises, including the October 2 police station. This brings the total number of detainees to around 30 Syrians who are currently awaiting a decision from the passport and immigration authority as well as a directive from the National Security Agency.

A lesson for Sissi

Over the past decade, Sisi has emphasized that the Egyptian military is essential to the country’s stability, urging the public to appreciate the role it has played since 2011.

Sisi often presents himself as Egypt’s protector, warning of chaos similar to that in Syria. “We can endure hunger and thirst, but we remain resilient,” he said in a speech.

Assad’s fall was highly symbolic and could be used to draw analogies with the Sissi regime. After armed factions captured Aleppo, Assad raised military salaries by 50 percent, but the Syrian army still failed to defend it as opposition forces moved toward the capital.

“What happened in Syria shows that stability cannot be achieved through brutality and oppression”

– Hisham Kassem, Egyptian politician

In Egypt, Sisi has granted the military significant economic power, controlling more than 60% of the economy. This raises concerns about the military’s loyalty during possible unrest. Sisi’s dependence on regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is similar to Assad’s dependence on Iran and Russia. However, like Assad, Sissi may find that his allies fail to intervene when needed.

Sisi’s anxiety likely stems from the economic difficulties and social pressures facing Syria and Egypt. In Syria, Assad’s policies have left nearly 90 percent of the population below the poverty line. Similarly, a recent comment by Social Solidarity Minister Maya Morsy revealed that around 12 million Egyptian families live in poverty, affecting around 48 to 60 million citizens facing severe economic hardship.

The stark difference between the luxury of the palaces conquered by Assad and the economic hardship of many Egyptians highlights this problem.

But the stark contrast between the poverty of most Egyptians and Sisi’s lavish new capital and presidential palace raises the question of whether Sisi will ever be able to cope with Assad’s fate.

Sisi’s choice to host the G8 summit in his new presidential palace has drawn criticism, calling it a strategic misstep. The palace, which cost around 150 billion Egyptian pounds ($3 billion), is under scrutiny as Sisi calls on citizens to bear the economic hardship. Given that Egypt’s poverty line is 90 pounds per day, this spending could potentially lift around 55 million Egyptians out of poverty.

“What happened in Syria shows that stability cannot be achieved through brutality and oppression,” Kassem told MEE.