What to watch out for in Welsh politics in 2025

The last 12 months have been an almost unprecedented year in Welsh politics.

There has been infighting within the Labor and Conservative groups in the Senedd, with three Labor prime ministers and two Welsh Conservative leaders in the Senedd.

There have been farmers’ protests, a Tory wipeout in the general election, a rise in the polls for Plaid Cymru and the Reform Party, with the success of the Welsh Government’s budget potentially dependent on a Liberal agreeing -democrat – and the 2026 Senedd elections are getting closer and closer. .

So what will happen? Well, here are five things to watch out for after Christmas and into 2025, but if the last 12 months are anything to go by, leave some room for something that will surprise you and grab headlines instead.

The NHS and waiting times

Reducing NHS waiting lists is the Prime Minister’s number one priority.

The NHS received more than £600 million in extra funding in the recent draft budget. For much of 2024, the rosters are heading in the wrong direction.

Prime Minister Eluned Morgan now aims to reduce the number of longest waits to 8,000 by April.

The NHS still ranks high with voters and is generally predominantly Labor territory. But if expectations remain stubborn and voters reflect on Labour’s 26 years in power – starting next year – could their NHS record work against them as the next Senedd election looms in 2026?

Morgan said his watchword was “delivery.” She will have to deliver.

The budget

The Welsh Labor government is due to adopt its budget in March. He is seeking help because he does not have a majority in the Senedd.

Finance Minister Mark Drakeford has already suggested there could be more money for Welsh councils at the lower end of funding increases announced in December.

Will this be enough to attempt arguably the simplest option – the sole Liberal Democrat member of the Senedd (MS) Jane Dodds?

She said the budget did not do enough to address the welfare “crisis” and she would like more money for childcare.

Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives do not appear to be part of any deal.

Bus

Over the past two years, transport in Wales has been dominated by the 20 mph speed limit – arguably the most controversial policy ever introduced by the Welsh Government – ​​and trains.

Much public money was diverted from elsewhere last year to keep Transport for Wales (TfW) on track.

At the start of 2025, the focus will be on buses, which make three quarters of all Welsh public transport journeys.

Waiting for the Bus Bill is a bit like waiting for, uh… a bus. It’s been a while, with these plans first released in 2022.

The Welsh Government wants to introduce a franchise system which it says would improve services. Ministers, TfW and councils would decide on services, fares, routes and timetables and put out tenders to manage them.

Conservatives have expressed reservations about TfW’s involvement and are against the plan.

There will also be a little more waiting. The rollout will begin in South West Wales, but not before 2027.

Transport Secretary Ken Skates is a big fan of buses: he revealed in the Senedd in December that he was making them out of Lego.

The Spending Review and HS2

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will publish a report on UK government spending in late spring, which will set limits on day-to-day public spending for the next three years and on major projects for five years.

This will affect direct UK Government spending in Wales and the amount of money available to the Welsh Government.

We could get a decision on what has become a totemic issue as much as a financial one: Wales’ share of HS2 high-speed rail.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer – during a recent visit to Airbus in Broughton – confirmed its designation as an England and Wales project, meaning the Welsh Government receives no significant funding.

There is cross-party support in the Senedd for Wales to get its share.

Plaid Cymru has suggested that HS2 funding for Wales should be part of any Welsh Government bid on a budget deal.

The FM says Sir Keir is “fed up” with her asking for HS2 money.

If there is no significant funding, what other rail investment could be coming to Wales?

And will that be enough to satisfy both demand and criticism? Plaid Cymru is seeking billions for HS2 – figures previously used by Labor – while Welsh ministers say the amount is around £350m, to reflect the high-speed rail built so far.

Momentum

Plaid Cymru has gained momentum and ends 2024 top of some Senedd polls.

Reform UK has it too, coming second in 13 of Wales’ 32 Westminster seats in the general election with just under 17% of the vote.

This bodes well for the Senedd’s proportional representation system in 2026, and the polls reflect this.

Reformers could also nominate a Welsh leader, although, judging by the reception he received at their Welsh conference in Newport in November, Nigel Farage remains the big draw.

Can both parties continue this momentum, and can Labor and the Conservatives regain their momentum?

The Senedd’s new Conservative leader, Darren Millar, is keen to present a positive vision for the Conservatives as a viable alternative government, after a 2024 marked by concern over the direction and approach of former leader Andrew RT Davies.

Welsh Labor will be very happy to put an extremely difficult year behind them – general elections aside.

Nothing will concentrate minds like an election.

The next Senedd elections will not take place until 2026, but it is in 2025 that the political parties will really start to present their speech to you.