Labor would lose almost 200 seats in ‘very unstable’ Parliament if election were held today, poll suggests

Labor would lose its majority and almost 200 seats if a general election were held today, a new mega-poll suggests.

While Sir Keir Starmer would still lead, it would be in a “very fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding more than 30 seats.

More in Common, which used data from more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show that United Kingdom: first past the post (FPTP) The system is “struggling to function” in the new world of multi-partyism, and if the results materialize it will make government formation “difficult”.

The model estimates Work would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of only six seats on the entire ballot. Conservatives.

According to the analysis, Labor would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP – with the ‘red wall’ gains in the July election almost entirely reversed.

Nigel Farage’s Reform Party would become the third largest in the House of Commons, multiplying its total number of seats by 14 to bring it to 72.

A number of ministers would lose their seats to the Reform Party – the main beneficiary of the decline in popularity of the Labor Party and the Conservatives – including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.

West Streethealth secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, analysis suggests.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model “is not a prediction of what would happen in the next general election”, which is not expected until 2029.

But he said the poll highlights a significant acceleration in electoral fragmentation since July’s vote and that the UK’s first-past-the-post system “is struggling to cope”.

In the UK’s FPTP system, the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes an MP and candidates from other parties get nothing.

There has long been criticism that this can generate disproportionate results.

For example, in the July election, Labor won 411 seats out of 650 with just under 34% of the votes cast.

Reform UK took 14.3% of the votes cast – the third largest party in terms of vote share – but won only five seats.

The Conservatives “would have difficulty getting closer” to forming the government

More in Common’s analysis found that 271 seats would be won with less than a third of the vote.

Labor would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and the Reformers 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, the SNP 37 and the Greens 2.

The Conservatives would be highest in terms of national vote share – at 26% to Labour’s 25% – but this would still be their second worst vote share in history and they would “struggle to get any closer” to the formation of a majority government without making gains against the Reformers on the right or against the Liberal Democrats on the left, Mr. Tryl said.

In an article on government would be “difficult”.

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More in common used the MRP techniquewhich uses large amounts of individual and constituency-level data.

“An uncertain future”

The results are similar to a JL Partners model published this week, which shows Labor would lose 155 seats, remaining with just 256, if an election were held today.

The analysis, which used data from council by-elections, puts the Conservatives on track to win 208 seats, the Reform 71, the Liberal Democrats 66 and the SNP six.

If the results were confirmed in the next election, it would “make government almost impossible for either party, sending the country into an uncertain future,” JL Partners said.

The results are the latest in a series of dismal polls in favor of Labor, which faces paying for unpopular decisions such as means conditions for payment of winter fuel and public relations nightmares like the row of gifts.

Labor is now on track for its worst end to the year in opinion polls since World War IIa Sky News analysis revealed.

However, history suggests that all is not yet lost for the party, which has already rebounded from historic lows.

And polling experts told Sky News they “certainly have time” to change things – and must focus on disseminating and improving their messages to the public.