2024 politics shaped 2025 federal election battlegrounds

The cost of living still emerges as “the Taylor Swift problem” as politicians across the country prepare their pitches to voters in the early months of 2025.

Housing, energy and economic management are shaping up to be key election battlegrounds, but parties will seek to draw attention to issues they see as their strengths, like child care and immigration.

Australians will go to the polls between January 25 and May 17 – although there has never been a federal election in January or February.

Although the details of each party’s 33-day campaign plans are being kept secret, the overall shape of the contest has been shaped over the past year.

Strategists have been closely watching what happened in overseas elections this year, particularly in the United Kingdom where Labor took power and the United States where Donald Trump was re-elected.

But they also know that while there are global trends against existing governments, next year’s campaign will be uniquely Australian.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton want people to seriously focus on what life could be like under each other.

Peter Dutton. Credit: Daniel Wilkins/Western Australia

Their campaigns revolve around a choice between building the future of the nation or getting it back on track.

But the 2025 election is widely expected to be, more than most, a state-by-state and seat-by-seat proposition, with different deciding factors for voters across the country.

Cost of living

The 2024 political year began earlier than usual, ahead of Australia Day, when Mr Albanese addressed the National Press Club to confirm he was reshaping the “third stage” of tax cuts to give more money to low-income workers.

Over the next six months, barely an interview or question time went by without the words “a tax cut for every taxpayer” coming out of a minister’s mouth.

Mr Dutton initially called an election so Labor could secure a mandate for its broken promise to leave the tax cuts as they were legislated in 2019 under Scott Morrison – before the pandemic made havoc on the economy and inflation.

But he changed his tone and allowed the overhaul to become law less than five weeks later, but not before forcing a few votes on amendments to change its title.

The tax cuts offered Mr Albanese a reset after a messy end to the previous year and gave backbenchers something to talk about when they hear voters talk about continued cost-of-living pressures .

The May budget continued on this path, offering more relief on electricity bills for households and small businesses, a freeze on drug prices and a further increase in rental assistance.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers also delivered a second surplus — the first time there have been two in a row in almost 20 years.

But this is quickly fading from memory and the elections will follow even worse numbers.

The mid-year budget update released a week before Christmas showed a slightly smaller deficit for 2024-25, but larger deficits in the following three years and a “very small surplus” over a decade.

Mr Albanese has repeatedly said his intention is to present another budget next year – scheduled for March 25 – and then head towards an election.

Dr. Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher are working on this next budget, but that doesn’t guarantee it will pass; they should do it anyway to prepare a policy for an electoral campaign and the second mandate sought.

Although there is no formal budget, the Treasury will publish a Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) during the campaign which will reveal the state of the accounts for review.

Redbridge manager Tony Barry, a former Liberal strategist, said if it were him he wouldn’t be rushing to deliver the budget.

“It’s a really tough sell…it takes a lot of work and I just think it’s not going to be good budget news.” This will be bad budgetary news,” he said.

Political work

Budget or no budget, Labor plans to continue to unveil its policies regularly over the coming months.

Mr. Albanese has given speeches at two mini-campaign rallies in recent months, promising student debt relief and better access to child care, and a third is planned before the end of the summer.

Several Labor sources said the student debt plan was one of the few things that had captured voters’ attention in the past six months.

It targets a key cohort, largely young people, that the party fears losing to the Greens or independents and helps ease the burden accumulated by inflation and high housing costs.

The Prime Minister is also shaping his message around Labor’s plans to strengthen manufacturing and boost the training of skilled workers.

“In these rough seas, always keep our eyes fixed on this horizon and ensure that we keep our promises,” he said just before Christmas.

There is also much work to be done on housing policy and health care costs.

“Obviously, cost of living and housing affordability remain Taylor Swift’s issues, but private health and public health are a dormant issue,” Mr. Barry said, pointing to key electoral battlegrounds. .

On the Coalition side, the policy arsenal is smaller, but there are promises that more will be added.

“Once the new year passes, we will be in the countryside. . . everyone will be – I don’t mean politicians, I mean the community,” Liberal Party deputy leader Sussan Ley told The West Australian.

“So yes, of course you will see additional policy announcements that will be made when we are ready.”

Others recognize the desire to keep the dust dry for the campaign and not give the government time to sort or align coalition policies.

There is also a school of thought that says you don’t win elections with modern policies.

What exists today is spectacular but lacking in detail: nuclear power, reduced migration, a $5 billion fund to build water and sewer infrastructure for housing developments.

The nuclear debate has captured imaginations, but Mr Dutton was unable to explain how it would overcome significant hurdles or how it would reduce citizens’ electricity bills in the short term.

Nonetheless, Ms Ley said cheaper energy would be fundamental.

“Energy is in everyone’s bill. It’s part of everyone’s cost of living. It’s present at every stage of the supply chain,” she said.

“So it’s not just about one thing, just standing there with everything else going in a different direction. That’s all.

Likewise, the opposition has not indicated how it would reduce migrant numbers, which remain high largely because fewer people are leaving Australia.

On housing, Mr. Barry said voters want bold ideas, but neither major party has produced them.

Polls versus reality

In a year that began with tax cuts and ended with dozens of bills submitted to Parliament, including a world-first ban on social media for children, the position of Labor Party in the polls has continued to decline and the shine has well and truly faded from Mr Albanese’s personal approval. evaluations.

Despite this trend, Labor supporters are largely happy with the 50-50 or 51-49 position so far from the election.

The same goes for the Liberals, who say that if they had been told two years ago that they would be “tied” at the end of a first term in opposition, they would have laughed.

History shows that opposition polls were closer to 55 percent in the months before the “change” elections, which is not the case this time.

The two-decade trend away from major parties continues, leading to less predictability about how preferences will flow and the real possibility of a hung parliament.

Nonetheless, Mr. Dutton has become increasingly confident, even telling reporters outside a doorway earlier in December: “My hope is that when the next election happens and we form a government…. . .” when we talk about a police task force.

The Liberals are counting on this trend continuing over the coming months until the election, while Labor believes it will reverse once voters focus on the credible reality of Mr Dutton’s appointment to the post of Prime Minister.

They hope that the prospect of a liberal victory or a hung parliament will dampen any protest votes.

“Imagine how well people could have done without cheaper medicine, cheaper childcare, lower energy bills, higher real wages and without the support we put in place, including a tax cut for every Australian taxpayer,” Mr Albanese said. .

Or, as he said when unveiling his new childcare policy: “If Peter Dutton had had his way, all Australians would have been worse off over the last three years and s he enters government, all Australians will be worse off in the next three years. years.”

Arguing a counterfactual or hypothesis is always a difficult question.

Mr Barry said the argument that now is the wrong time to risk change could be effective.

“The old message of cuts, cuts, cuts, cuts is boring, but it works because it’s a natural bias people have against the Coalition,” he said.

The Labor slogan “Building Australia’s future” is forward-looking but nebulous at this stage.

The Liberals have yet to settle on a definitive slogan, but Mr. Dutton and his team have used the word “back on track” in high rotation.

“I’m not talking about slogans on the campaign trail, but I think ‘getting back on track’ reflects exactly what we need to do,” Ms. Ley said.

“You get a nod when you tell people: Let’s get this economy back on track. »

As candidates get their corflutes printed and campaigners get their teams ready to roll, one thing is certain: voters will be hearing a lot more from politicians.