East Carolina vs. Tulsa Prediction and Picks for College Football Week 12

We get some AAC action under the lights as the East Carolina Pirates visit the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Thursday night.

This Pirates offense has plundered its opponents, posting a huge number of consecutive wins, and now stands at just one bowl eligibility victory.

My predictions between East Carolina and Tulsa see the Buccos firing the guns on offense, but will that be enough to cover a two-touchdown spread? Read my college football picks below to find out.

East Carolina vs Tulsa, Prediction and Best Bet

My best bet
Katin Houser Over 299.5 passing yards (-115 at pari365)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The East Carolina Pirates have turned their season around in the last two games, exploding for 49 and 56 points in back-to-back wins. The reason for this? Switching to Katin Houser at quarterback three games ago.

The Michigan State transfer has totaled 894 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions in those three games. That includes throwing five touchdown passes in each of two wins. The Buccos have also gone 2-1 in a row and 3-0 against the spread, and I like that Houser continues to cook in this game against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

East Carolina is now 5-4 on the season and is just one win away from bowl eligibility, and this game against Tulsa might be their best chance to get there.

The Golden Hurricane enter this game with a 3-6 record, but are just 1-4 in conference play, getting outscored 225-104 in the process. The offense is struggling to score and the defense is getting killed through the air.

Tulsa ranks 110th in defensive success rate on putbacks and 134th (last in the nation) in EPA per putback. This means the Golden Hurricane secondary is torched consistently and for explosive plays.

Here are the passing yardage totals Tulsa has allowed to opposing starting quarterbacks over the last five games: 404, 434, 297, 140 and 493.

297 was Temple. The 140 was Army, which Bryson Daily did in just five passes. Houser, who totaled 343 yards in last week’s win over Florida Atlantic, has an average of 299.5 passing yards. Give me the Over in a game the Pirates need a lot more than Tulsa.

Parlay East Carolina vs. Tulsa in the same game (SGP)

East Carolina’s problem this season was its offense. Well, it looks like the Pirates have solved that problem by moving on to Houser. Let’s double down on the prop plays for the Buccos’ QB and take his alternate touchdowns to 4+ after throwing five in each of the last two weeks.

Meanwhile, this Pirates defense has been the team’s strength all season long. East Carolina enters this game ranked 28th in defensive success rate. Now, the Pirates have been burned by explosive plays at times, but Tulsa isn’t equipped to take advantage.

The Golden Hurricane ranks 130th in EPA/play offense and offensive success rate. East Carolina is a perfect 3-0 against the spread with Houser at QB and has brought strong leads into the half in each of the last two games. I like the Pirates to get off to another good start.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

East Carolina vs. Tulsa Odds

East Carolina vs Tulsa live odds

East Carolina vs. Tulsa Opening Odds

• East Carolina vs. Tulsa Spread: Toulouse +13
• East Carolina Moneyline vs. Tulsa: East Carolina -500, Tulsa +375
• East Carolina vs. Tulsa Over/Under: 59.5

Odds courtesy of bet365.

East Carolina vs. Tulsa Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Tulsa opened this game with 13 points, but that wasn’t enough to entice early bettors to side with the home underdog, as the spread now sits at 14.5.
• East Carolina looks like a different team with Katin Houser at QB and is 3-0 ATS with him under center. Meanwhile, Tulsa is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.
• The total reached 59.5, and the first action was on the Over, with the number rising to 62.5 by Wednesday afternoon.
• This corresponds to the QB switch for the ECU. The Pirates have conceded three straight overs with Houser at center and four in a row overall. Oddsmakers are hoping ECU will do the heavy lifting here, and that’s not a crazy idea. Tulsa has allowed more than 45 points in four of its last five games. Unsurprisingly, the Over is 4-1 during this period.

East Carolina vs Tulsa Betting Trend to Know

Tulsa has only covered the first half spread in three of its last 11 games for -6.10 units and a -49% ROI. Check out more college football betting trends for East Carolina vs. Tulsa.

East Carolina vs. Tulsa Match Info

East Carolina vs. Tulsa, latest injuries

Weather East Carolina vs Tulsa

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