China’s ‘missile swarms’ could overwhelm America in war

What you need to know: The U.S. defense industrial base is under immense strain, leaving the country ill-prepared for a potential high-intensity conflict with China. Continued support for Ukraine and Israel has depleted stockpiles of critical weapons, such as Patriot missile systems, while the industrial base struggles to rebuild.

-If a war with China broke out, the United States would likely quickly exhaust its arsenal, especially since Chinese doctrine emphasizes overwhelming missile swarms.

-Although the Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience Partnership (IPPR) offers long-term solutions by pooling resources with allies, this will not be enough in the short term. Urgent reforms to the defense industrial base are essential to avoid catastrophic disadvantage.

Missile wars: is the United States ready to counter China’s arsenal?

When the new Trump administration looks at the Defense Department’s cupboards, it will likely find that those cupboards are empty. In other words, while Americans have involved themselves in almost every war imaginable, they have done so with a hopelessly sclerotic defense industrial base.

So as the United States withdraws more and more supplies from its arsenals to feed the armies of its partners and allies, such as the Ukrainian and Israeli armies (and perhaps the Taiwanese army), the US arsenal runs out. Additionally, given the aforementioned U.S. defense industrial crisis, once U.S. arsenals are depleted, given current demand, the defense industrial base will be unable to replenish these stocks in a timely manner.

This is a staggering thought, considering the United States’ involvement in these intractable conflicts. If a war between China and Taiwan breaks out and U.S. leaders choose to meet their defense obligations to Taiwan, the strain on the defense industrial base will become almost unbearable.

The cupboards are empty

Just consider this: When the outgoing Biden administration recently authorized the release of Patriot missile batteries to the Ukrainians, defense experts hesitated because they understood that the Ukrainians would likely deplete their arsenals prematurely.

If the Patriots were exhausted in Ukraine, when the Israelis needed more of these systems and munitions for these systems, they would find that the Americans had none left. This pattern repeated itself several times.

For example, two years ago, the White House informed Taipei that the howitzers it expected from the United States would not arrive until at least 2027 because the Americans were prioritizing Ukraine – and that the base American defense industry could not keep pace. request.

Let us therefore hope that the Chinese will not choose a moment between this date and 2027 to launch either an invasion or a blockade of island democracy!

All of this brings us to the most pressing question. If war broke out soon between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, how long would it take for Americans to literally run out of missiles and missile interceptors?

Based on my own research, due to all of the above problems with the defense industrial base and the strain on the existing arsenal, the Americans would deplete their arsenals quite quickly in a full-scale war with China .

Especially since any conflict with China would involve the firing of an incredible number of missiles by both sides. As a result, both sides would also deploy a record amount of ballistic missile defense systems – interceptors – to defend against incoming missile swarms.

The Chinese angle

China could sustain a high-intensity conflict in terms of missiles and missile interceptors much longer than the United States. The depletion of the American arsenal caused by the war in Ukraine and the wars in the Middle East has only exacerbated this negative trend.

The United States could hold out for a while in a conflict with China, but, in terms of key weapons systems, the Americans are more likely to exhaust themselves earlier in the conflict than the Chinese. In other words, the Chinese would likely have a better chance of winning an engagement simply by outlasting the Americans.

Chinese military doctrine calls for deploying a broad bombardment of long-range missiles and even hypersonic weapons against U.S. military targets throughout the Indo-Pacific. The mere threat of such comprehensive attacks is intended to deter the Americans from risking that their expensive platforms, such as the aircraft carrier, are certain to be destroyed by these Chinese missile swarms.

The U.S. military would likely deploy long-range ballistic missiles to weaken Chinese targets and wipe out Chinese missile sites. But Chinese forces would likely have far greater numbers of missile interceptors to degrade the U.S. attack. And the Chinese counterattack against the Americans would risk overwhelming American antimissile defenses.

PIPR is not enough

A recent Atlantic Council report concluded that the Americans would quickly exhaust their weapons stocks. Their suggestion is to use the Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience Partnership (IPPR) to pool the arsenals and resources of the United States and its regional partners.

It’s a great idea.

And if the conflict that worries us between the United States and China breaks out within ten to fifteen years, then the PIPR will constitute a wonderful safety net for Americans, increasingly exhausted and severely tested by wars. endless activities in which they engaged. conflict is more likely to occur in the coming years – and the PIPR cannot be counted on.

So the new Trump administration, along with Congress, must prioritize strengthening the nation’s ailing defense industrial base while slowing the rush to war. Any policy that further depletes the U.S. arsenal, unless it is genuinely aimed at furthering direct national security interests, should be postponed until at least the defense industry’s problems are resolved and the arsenals are full again. Otherwise, we risk defeat in a missile war with China.

About the author:

Brandon J. Weicherta national security project of national interest analystis a former congressman and geopolitical analyst who contributes to The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image credit: Creative Commons.