A new triangular relationship – Opinion

A trilateral dialogue and cooperation mechanism should be established between China, the United States and the LAC to address factors that threaten the balance of the new relationship.

For Latin America and the Caribbean, the United States is a strong northern neighbor with similar political and cultural traditions and deep historical influence, while China is a new partner thanks to its economic presence and growing political influence in recent years. As China’s national power and international influence grow, the United States attempts to contain and suppress it as a strategic competitor. The fierce competition between China and the United States has led to the formation of a new triangular relationship between China, the United States and the United States. BAC, which is different from the historical trilateral relationship.

The concept of a new triangular relationship between China, the United States and the LAC region was first proposed by researchers in the LAC region. That is, LAC countries recognize both the long historical, political, and economic ties with the United States and China’s growing socio-economic presence in the region. China’s growing influence in the LAC region has challenged the traditional influence of the United States, significantly changing the geopolitical and economic balance of this region. From this perspective, LAC countries find themselves at a crossroads and in the middle of the competition between the United States and China. Furthermore, Sino-American relations play a key role in this new triangle, the nature and status of which largely determine the evolution of the trilateral relationship.

The first novelty of the new triangular relationship is that the growth of bilateral economic and trade relations between China and the LAC region is significantly higher than that between the United States and Latin America. From 2000 to 2020, US-LAC trade grew from $350 billion to $500 billion, still significantly higher than China’s 2020 figure of $350 billion, but its growth rate – increasing by almost 50% – was eclipsed by China’s 2,600% increase.

Second, China’s presence in Latin America has attracted unprecedented attention from the United States. Compared to historical responses to the presence of the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union in the region, the United States displays unprecedented strategic concerns and anxiety over China’s growing influence in the context. of Sino-American competition.

Third, when it comes to great power relations, LAC countries are more independent, self-reliant and integrated than at any time in history. With the rise of the “pink wave” in this century, left-wing governments in Latin America have achieved successful results in the regional integration process. The emergence of larger integrated organizations with clearer political programs and better organized structures, such as the Common Market of the South, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, means that LAC countries are more powerful and powerful. have a unified voice to respond to the new triangular relationship.

However, LAC countries have some concerns about the new triangular relationship. Economically, they believe that in the short term they can benefit from Sino-US competition for their own interests, but their long-term economic interests will be compromised due to tensions in international relations caused by competition. In terms of security, LAC countries fear that Sino-American competition could trigger regional conflicts. In recent years, behind subregional conflicts such as the border crisis between Venezuela and Colombia and the territorial sovereignty conflict between Venezuela and Guyana, there has been the shadow of great power games. In terms of foreign relations, LAC countries may find themselves under strong pressure in the future to choose sides between China and the United States.

By adopting the strategy of active non-alignment, promoting the regional integration process and seeking to strengthen cooperation with countries outside the triangle, LAC countries are responding to the potential negative impacts of Sino-US strategic competition. .

For example, the concept of active non-alignment has become very popular in debates about Latin America’s position in international politics and the Ukrainian crisis. Latin American governments should not accept the a priori position of any of the great powers. Rather, they must act to defend their own national interests, without giving in to pressure from great powers. However, under the coercion and seduction of the United States, the strategic choice of LAC countries has become complex and uncertain.

Due to a long history of US intervention in the region, most LAC countries still have unstable expectations and insufficient trust in the United States. At the same time, China-Latin America relations have recorded new progress through cooperation in various fields. With the rapid intensification of trade relations, China has become the LAC’s second largest trading partner. In addition, from the establishment of the China-CELAC Forum in 2015 to the proposal and implementation of a series of development initiatives between China and Latin America, China has helped countries in ALC to improve their development capacity.

In the context of Sino-US competition, China should on the one hand help LAC countries maintain their dominant position in regional cooperation mechanisms and work with them to maintain and practice multilateralism, deepen reform of the global governance and promote the construction of a community with a shared future for humanity. On the other hand, China should establish and improve communication mechanisms with LAC countries to better understand each other’s development needs. Furthermore, the most ideal situation for the three actors in the new triangle is to maintain a fundamentally stable, cooperative and relatively balanced relationship. Therefore, on the basis of respecting the national interests of all parties, a trilateral dialogue and cooperation mechanism between China, the United States and the LAC should be established to properly address the factors that threaten the balance of the new triangular relationship.

The author is a researcher at the Latin American Research Center of Sun Yat-sen University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

These views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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