Michigan State Football vs. Purdue: Scouting Report and Predictions

Free Press sports writer Chris Solari is looking forward to Michigan State football’s visit from Purdue on Friday night.

Fast facts

Match : Michigan State (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten) vs. Purdue (1-9, 0-7).

To start up: 8 p.m. Friday; Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

Television/radio: Fox, WJR-AM (760).

Double: Spartans by 13½.

Michigan State vs. Purdue Football Availability Report

MSU: Out: CB Charles Brantley (lower left leg), S Malik Spencer (undisclosed), CB Chance Rucker (right arm), DB Dillon Tatum (lower body), LS Kaden Schickel (left leg, season), DE Avery Dunn ( season, undisclosed), TE Michael Masunas (shoulder, season), OL Kristian Phillips (left leg, season), OL Gavin Broscious (lower left leg, season), DB Khalil Majeed (lower body, season). Questionable: DB Caleb Gash (right leg). Questionable: DB Armorion Smith (undisclosed), DT Jalen Satchell (undisclosed), LB Wayne Matthews III (undisclosed), WR Jaron Glover (undisclosed).

Purdue: Questionable: DL Damarjhe Lewis (undisclosed), WR Jayden Dixon-Veal (undisclosed), TE George Burhenn (undisclosed).

Reconnaissance report

When MSU has the ball: Aidan Chiles has faced a continuous barrage of pressure all season behind the Spartans’ offensive line, with Illinois sacking the second-year quarterback five times during Saturday’s 38-16 loss in Champaign. MSU has allowed 32 sacks this season, which is tied for 13th in the Football Bowl Subdivision, and 29 against Big Ten opponents. That includes 26 sacks over their last six games. Still, Chiles managed to produce one of his most efficient games of the season against the Illini, going 23 of 40 for 256 yards and two touchdowns through the air while rushing seven times for 71 yards before the 31 yards lost on bags. He accounted for nearly every facet of MSU’s offense in the loss, with running backs Nate Carter and Kay’ron Lynch-Adams shutting down again (14 carries and 45 yards combined) as the offensive line failed. to provide room for maneuver during transfers. Chiles used Carter out of the backfield in the passing game for five catches, including a touchdown, while spreading the ball between young receivers Nick Marsh and Aziah Johnson and veteran Montorie Foster, with Jaron Glover once again limited due to ‘an injury. The Spartans will look to fix the kinks against a Boilermakers defense that ranks 121st out of 133 FBS teams in total defense (455.7 yards allowed) and has been outscored 94-10 in the last two games by Ohio State and Penn State. It’s a matter of picking your poison to beat Purdue, which ranks 119th against the run (203.3 yards) and through the air, 108th in passing yards allowed (252.4) and 132nd in passing efficiency. pass defense. The Boilermakers are 130th in points allowed per game (38.9), 130th in third-down conversions (48.8%) and last in fourth-down defense (69.2%).

When Purdue has the ball: The Spartans’ inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks continues to be a major problem. MSU went sackless for the sixth straight game against Illinois and failed to generate a turnover for the third straight game after creating nine total and at least one per game over the first seven. Since shutting out Prairie View A&M on September 14, MSU has given up an average of 27.6 points while losing six of its last seven games. As significant as the lack of passing speed is, the injury toll in the secondary also presents a risk for the final two games with a number of younger, inexperienced players filling key roles without the starting cornerbacks from earlier in the year. season Charles Brantley and Chance Rucker, starting safety Malik Spencer and versatile Dillon Tatum are the biggest losses among them. If there’s any relief in a short week, it’s against a Purdue offense that is one of the worst in the country this season. The Boilermakers are tied for 128th in scoring (17.2 points per game), 122nd in total offense (318.6 yards) and 128th in first downs (151). Purdue also ranks 118th in third-down conversions (33.6) while not being penalized too much (84th in fewest penalty yards at 55.5 and tied for 56th in fewest flags per game to 5.7).

Know the enemy

House of cards: Quarterback Hudson Card has been the main man in a Boilermaker offense that also occasionally rotates in backup Ryan Browne. Card, who transferred to Purdue from Texas in 2023, completes 59.7 percent of his passes and is averaging 158.0 yards per game with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Browne, a redshirt freshman born in Clarkston, played in seven games and completed 40 of 68 passes for 513 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while rushing 43 times for 165 yards. Card was 11 of 20 for 151 yards with no interceptions or touchdowns in a 49-10 loss to Penn State on Saturday, while Browne threw a TD pass in the fourth quarter.

Some races: The Boilermakers did their best on the ground, averaging 137.5 yards per game on the ground to rank 92nd nationally. While Browne poses a threat, running backs Devin Mockobee and Reggie Love III have combined to average 102.2 yards on 194 carries between them with five rushing touchdowns.

Pressure points: Purdue generated just 18 sacks on defense, although the only teams to prevent the Boilermakers from getting at least one sack were Wisconsin and Penn State. Senior linebacker Kydran Jenkins leads with 5½ sacks while sophomore defensive end Will Heldt has five, and both are local Purdue products. The Boilermakers have managed just two sacks in their last three games on defense, while their offensive line has allowed 12 of their 27 sacks in the last four games.

Chris Solari’s two hundred

Timing clock: Although it has been pretty solid all season, MSU’s defense has struggled to generate sacks and turnovers. The Spartans have gone 377 minutes and 51 seconds of game time without a sack since defensive end Anthony Jones got the final sack in the third quarter at Boston College on Sept. 21. MSU hasn’t forced a turnover since safety Nikai Martinez’s interception against Iowa on Sept. 21. On October 19, a duration of 190:52 on the field. And the Spartans have created just one forced fumble all season, with Wayne Matthews III pouncing on the ball in the first quarter at BC and 410:11 of play since without another.

Another night: The Spartans will play their record seventh night game of the season. With next week’s regular season finale a 3:30 p.m. home kickoff against Rutgers, it also marks the first time in MSU history that the Spartans have started all of their games after 2 p.m. get one, although their trajectory lends itself to another night game in mid-December if they win their final two games to secure a spot.

Prediction

Chiles and his receivers are having a big day in the air against Purdue’s porous secondary. It also opens the on-court doors for Carter and Lynch-Adams to pick up a critical second-half win and put together a win-or-stay-at-home game against Rutgers in eight days. The choice: MSU 28, Purdue 13.

Contact Chris Solari: [email protected]. Follow him @chrissolari.

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