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The NBA’s 2024 free agency class was a dud

Posted on by Sweet
The NBA’s 2024 free agency class was a dud

Paul George, the 76ers’ biggest signing this summer, is off to a disappointing start in Philadelphia. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) (Mitchell Leff via Getty Images)

Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll dig deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines to try to determine whether the trends are based more on fact or fiction.

(Last week: The NBA needs more 3-point specialists)

No team spent more on salary last summer than the Philadelphia 76ers, who own the NBA’s worst record through the first month of the season – indirect evidence that the 2024 free agency class has been a failure.

Let’s delve deeper into this question to see if the teams managed to save a few value.

First of all, a reintroduction of Cost Per Win (CPW), a statistic created here in 2016 to measure the cost of each player’s contribution to the success of a team over a given season: We take the average annual value (AAV) of a player’s contract, we divide it by the victory shares (WS) of this player and extrapolate the data over a full season. This provides us with an estimate of how much teams pay their players for each win.

We’ve separated the 56 free agents who changed teams over the summer into four categories: big tickets ($12,859,001 and up), mid-tier players ($5,183,000 – $12,859,000), low-cost players ($1,157,153 – $5,182,999) and two-way players. It is more difficult to equalize the value between levels. Teams to wait for pay more per win for max-salary players. Usage varies. The roles are different. Minimum wage players do not stabilize organizations. In fact, adding a high-priced free agent has been known to attract lower-cost players, as was the case in Philadelphia.

PLAYER

AAV

W.S.

CPW

1. DeMar DeRozan, SAC

$24,630,000

1.5

$3,003,659

2. Klay Thompson, DAL

$16,666,667

0.7

$4,355,401

3. Tobias Harris, DET

$26,000,000

1.1

$4,900,222

4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, ENT

$22,000,000

0.7

$6,132,404

5. Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC

$29,000,000

0.1

$56,585,366

6. Paul George, PHI

$52,896,235

0.1

$90,310,645

Eighty-eight players have recorded at least a win share in the first month of the season, and only two of them – Sacramento Kings standout DeMar DeRozan and Detroit Pistons forward Tobias Harris – have been costly acquisitions in free agency.

And who else was bidding on DeRozan or Harris?

Granted, Isaiah Hartenstein made his season debut for the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, the same day Paul George hyperextended his left knee for the second time in five weeks. We should then expect Harris to have had a bigger impact on the Pistons than George did on the Philadelphia 76ers, though that’s no less disheartening for Sixers fans who ran Harris out of town.

Stop to think about what signing George — the most talented player among a shallow pool of expensive free agents — could mean for Philly. He is the only player still active from the 2010 draft class, and he has played in more than 56 games once in the last five years, his contract season. He suffered serious injuries to both ends and will receive $56.6 million in 2028, when he turns 38.

It also doesn’t help that max-salary teammates Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey can’t stay on the field. At some point, all three of them will play sustained minutes together. Presumably, they will win games. But it bears repeating: The 76ers have so far paid George $9 million to contribute to one-tenth of their victory share.

PLAYER

AAV

W.S.

CPW

1. Kris Dunn, BAC

$5,426,400

1

$1,058,810

2. Chris Paul, SAS

$10,460,000

1.7

$1,200,574

3. Buddy Hield, GSW

$9,439,024

1.2

$1,342,951

4. Naji Marshall, DAL

$9,000,000

1

$1,646,341

5. Malik Beasley, DET

$6,000,000

0.7

$1,777,003

6. Jonas Valanciunas, WAS

$10,098,333

0.8

$2,001,194

7. Derrick Jones Jr., BAC

$10,000,000

0.9

$2,168,022

8. Jalen Smith, CHI

$9,000,000

0.4

$4,390,244

9. Caleb Martin, MIA

$8,760,176

0.3

$4,985,466

10. De’Anthony Melton, GSW

$12,822,000

0.3

$7,297,073

Four of the aforementioned 88 players received mid-level contracts last summer.

We also got 88 games of film on Kris Dunn in Utah, where he was his usual All-Defensive caliber and added 3-point shooting (40% on 147 attempts). Imagine not queuing for these services with little money. Yet the LA Clippers landed him on July 1 for the taxpayer’s mid-level exception. It pays to be early – and to be right.

The same goes for Naji Marshall, a hard-hitting wing whose 3-point shooting hit a career-high 38.7 percent last season. That number dropped to 13% early in the season, but the Dallas Mavericks should be encouraged that he’s still generating significant value while waiting for his shooting to progress toward average.

Chris Paul, Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley, Jonas Valanciunas and Derrick Jones Jr. were household names when they entered free agency, and they are delivering on their promise of mid-tier salaries. They’re all poised for a handful of win shares this season, something Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid provided for the Minnesota Timberwolves last season. In other words, $2 million per win is good value for a mid-level salary.

PLAYER

AAV

W.S.

CPW

1. Jay Huff, M.E.M.

$2,527,660

1.1

$448,365

2. Tyus Jones, PHX

$3,003,427

1.2

$488,362

3. Guerschon Yabusélé, PHI

$2,087,519

0.7

$509,151

4. Prince Taurus, MIL

$2,988,550

0.7

$780,980

5. Cameron Payne, New York

$3,003,427

0.6

$915,679

6. Javonte Green, NOP

$2,425,403

0.5

$946,499

7. Mason Plumlee, PHX

$3,303,771

0.6

$1,074,397

8. Alec Burks, UTA

$3,303,771

0.4

$1,309,421

9. Jordan McLaughlin, OAC

$2,425,403

0.3

$1,478,904

10. Monte Morris, PHX

$2,800,834

0.3

$1,821,681

The Memphis Grizzlies signed Jay Huff to a two-way contract in July and, a week into the season, upgraded him to a fully guaranteed salary for the next two years. He more than deserved this deal.

It should come as no surprise that Tyus Jones appears on this list. His minimum salary was a gift to the Phoenix Suns, as he prioritized a considerable role to show his true value for the summer of 2025.

And, at least, the Sixers found some value at that salary level, landing Guerschon Yabusele, whose value was obvious to anyone who saw him play against Team USA in the Paris Olympics.

It’s hard to make a serious mistake at this level of compensation. Unfortunately, the Sixers also have Eric Gordon and his -0.2 win shares.

But we should return to the Clippers, whose first order of business in free agency was signing Kevin Porter Jr. to a minimum contract. His win shares of -0.3 are the lowest of anyone who has played that many minutes than him (275). The Clippers are paying Porter to make their team worse, and that’s nothing any team wants, especially from this player.

How could the Clippers be so accurate in their evaluation of one player and yet be so wrong on another? One wonders to what extent luck plays a role in the single-season success of minimum-paid players. Adding Jones to that salary is a no-brainer. But you don’t know what you’re going to get year to year from guys like Taurean Prince, Cameron Payne, Javonte Green and Mason Plumlee. I hope for their best.

PLAYER

AAV

W.S.

CPW

1. Moussa Diabaté, CHA

$578,577

0.7

$151,196

2. Jamal Cain, NOP

$578,577

0.2

$564,465

3. TyTy Washington, PHX

$578,577

0.1

$1,128,931

4. JT Thor, CLE

$578,577

0.1

$1,199,489

Which brings us to the two-way crew. Any contribution at this level is valuable.

A second to praise Moussa Diabaté. The Clippers — yes, those same Clippers — declined his $2.1 million qualifying offer, making the athletic 6-foot-11 rim protector a free agent. No one offered the minimum. The Charlotte Hornets have taken a two-way flight and he owns his 16 minutes a night. He is efficient in his limited offensive possessions, rebounds like crazy (16.3 per 36 minutes) and keeps his opponents in check.

Overall, the expensive free agents were a dud, the mid-tier free agents are mediocre, and the real value was among the low-cost free agents. And even then, not much makes a difference. The question is not whether the 2024 free agency class was a dud, but whether free agency itself is dying as a team-building tool.

Determination: Do. The 2024 NBA free agency class was a dud.