Eoin O’Malley: Government loses support as election campaign draws to a close

Broadcasters frequently feature non-election topics in their new bulletins – unheard of in the past. Is it because we don’t know what the elections are about?

No party or leader has taken hold of it and defined it for us. While in 2020 we have seen a rise in Sinn Féin with a focus on housing and Mary Lou McDonald, no such surge or collapse has yet occurred.

Although research shows that about half of voters decided in the last few days or on Election Day, even those who decided late probably formed their minds well in advance. It is unlikely that the remaining days of campaigning will be enough to radically change opinion.

How did the party campaigns go? Campaigns generally focus on certain elements: people, issues and choices. Some parties have people who are well liked or, if not liked, respected as competent. These parties will focus on their people and emphasize that they would form a better government.

A party may also have policies or a reputation on certain issues that make it popular, in which case it lobbies on those in the hope that when voters make up their minds, that’s what they’re thinking about.

Party campaigns also try to present voting as a choice. The Conservatives presented the 2017 election as one of stability under Theresa May or chaos under the Labor Party. More often than not – and 2024 Ireland will be no exception – elections are framed as a choice between more of the same and change.

Fine Gael would like to make us fear change with its “secure your future” campaign. He chose the timing and duration of this election campaign when he was leading the polls and the main opposition party was in difficulty. He should therefore be in the best position to succeed.

However, the last two weeks have not seen Fine Gael perform well. His campaign focuses on the leader. Despite the undeniable energy of Simon Harris, we do not know exactly where this “new energy” is tending.

There is no strategy in his campaign. The election of Donald Trump in the United States seemed an ideal basis for a campaign emphasizing the precariousness of the Irish economy.

But if Fine Gael wanted to secure our future and suggest that Sinn Féin is a threat to the public finances, a free budget seemed a strange foundation on which to build a campaign.

Harris is a good communicator and capable of dealing with the ups and downs of campaigns, but some things have gone wrong. This exchange in Cork, for which he apologized, did him absolutely no favors.

The candidacy of John McGahon, declared civilly responsible for an assault in a nightclub, monopolized part of this energy. Cautiously asserting that Harris did not actually sign the contract for Nationwide Children’s Hospital hardly screams accountability where government waste could become significant.

The early fights with Fianna Fáil might have been deemed necessary, but these were surely more so for Fianna Fáil. Its main problem is how to distinguish itself from Fine Gael. By excluding any coalition with Sinn Féin, the return of a government of the same type seems inevitable.

Michael Martin is a competent campaigner and people tend to trust him, but he’s not exciting. Fianna Fáil’s slogan, “Moving forward. Together’ is so innocuous that it seems to have been written by artificial intelligence. It is difficult to pin down what Fianna Fáil’s strategy is. He may be relying on a ground game with experienced candidates in districts to get the job done, rather than basing his efforts on a national campaign.

The main effort to distinguish the party from Fine Gael is a veiled criticism of Helen McEntee’s handling of the justice system. In Darragh O’Brien, the party has one of its most combative players who has not been afraid to take on Eoin Ó Broin, Sinn Féin’s self-proclaimed housing expert.

Ó Broin and housing played an important role in Sinn Féin’s campaign, but not as much as last time. The party’s strategy rests firmly on defining the election as a “Vote for Change”. It makes sense when there is a feeling of dissatisfaction. But the vote for change does not rely on a plausible alternative coalition.

Four years ago, “Mary Lou for Taoiseach” became a slogan after the 2020 election. Eighteen months ago, we expected it to be a slogan for this one. His star has fallen. McDonald has struggled in some of her media performances to show the energy she once had, although she seems to be doing well on the track.

But it is notable that an article last week by Gerry Adams arguing for Sinn Féin did not mention McDonald, and she shares space with Pearse Doherty on the party’s election literature. McDonald also did not feature in Sinn Féin’s election broadcast. If Sinn Féin regains momentum last week, it may become an avatar of “change”, but it will be Sinn Féin, not Mary Lou McDonald.

Small parties usually struggle to attract attention in elections, but the Greens get a lot of it. Most of the criticism has been negative, from their former coalition colleagues as well as opposition parties. In an election that places almost no emphasis on his central issue, climate change, he could put pressure on his leader.

But with Roderic O’Gorman lacking the charm or likeability of Eamon Ryan, the Greens are focusing on their ability to perform in government. While this may remind some people why they hate the Greens, it’s a smart strategy to build support among those who voted Green in 2020.

The SocDem are doing well, even without the party leader. Holly Cairns’ replacement, Cian O’Callaghan, seems a little shocked by all the attention, but he can stay on the bandwagon of change, hoping that the middle class abandoning the Greens will come in his place.

Labor is trying to link up with the SocDems. Ivana Bacik lacks appeal outside certain constituencies, but the party has focused all its resources on these constituencies, which could save the party from a devastation long expected 18 months ago.

If Sinn Féin resumes last week, it may become an avatar of “change”, but it will be Sinn Féin, not Mary Lou McDonald.

Aontú came into the elections with a significant advantage and disadvantage. Peadar Tóibín is a good performer. But as a party with only one TD, it is difficult to maintain the idea that it is a party.

If the elections are lost by the governments and not won by the opposition, then the government this time appears to be losing support to independents, who, even without a unified campaign, could do better.