How New Jersey Democrats Can Win. – laparenthese-gourmande

3 minutes of reading

Matthew Hale
| Special to the USA TODAY Network

The 2024 election results are sending many Democrats into panic mode. We hear crazy talk about New Jersey being the next swing state. It’s exaggerated. New Jersey has the same congressional delegation makeup as 2020. Relax.

Still, the fact that Morris, Passaic, Gloucester, Atlantic and Cumberland counties all went from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 is concerning for Democrats. But it is not obligatory. Democrats have messages and policy options that can return these counties to blue. The question Democrats must ask themselves is which of their gubernatorial candidates is best positioned to move from the failed messages of 2024 to the winning messages of 2025.

How did Trump flip New Jersey counties?

To begin, let’s look at what happened. Trump won because many Harris voters stayed home. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in the Democratic strongholds of Essex, Union and Hudson counties by just over 390,000 votes. In 2024, Harris also easily beat Trump in these counties, but only by about 255,000 votes. Losing 135,000 votes in places she needed to win big hurt Harris. Trump got about 93,000 votes in the five flipped counties, but again it was Harris who underperformed and not Trump who overperformed.

When we compare the demographics of the five counties flipped by Trump and the three heavily Democratic counties, we see a familiar, if admittedly imperfect, pattern. According to the 2020 Census, on average, the five counties that turned to Trump are whiter, poorer, have lower education levels and are more likely to have veterans than the rest of New Jersey. Additionally, they are less likely to have health insurance and pay less on average for housing than the rest of New Jersey. Interestingly, Essex, Union, and Hudson are also poorer, less likely to have health insurance, and slightly less educated than the rest of New Jersey. The difference is that these three heavily Democratic counties have higher percentages of people of color than the rest of New Jersey.

So in the eight counties that gave Harris problems, we see a lot of middle- and working-class voters compared to the rest of the state. This is not surprising. Harris won over these voters across the country. What is surprising is that in 2024, this weakness has begun to cross racial lines. In 2024, class may have been more important than race.

How can Democrats win the New Jersey governorship?

To keep the governor’s mansion blue in 2025, Democrats must make sure the working- and middle-class families they lost in 2024 return home. To achieve this, they have several clear paths:

Promoting affordability and tax reduction: First, Democrats need to refocus on the economic and affordability issues that most people care about. They should reframe the debate over the SALT tax deduction as not just for the wealthy but also for the middle class. They should take advantage of New York’s recent gift and fight like hell to end the congestion charge and present it as a tax on “ordinary” people. If they want to raise taxes on the rich, fine, but show how the benefits will benefit the middle and working class, not just the poor.

Promoting school choice: Second, working-class families want fairness and the freedom to pursue a future for their children that they fear is slipping away from them. Democrats could argue for a modified form of school choice, popular with working-class families who fear their children are falling behind. Likewise, while making college more affordable is great, Democrats should talk more about strengthening non-college alternatives like trade schools, union apprenticeships, and certification programs.

Adopt centrist social positions: Third, the Democratic candidate cannot be considered one of these “crazy liberals.” Many of the social and cultural issues championed by the far left are looked down upon by the middle/working class who focus on economic issues. New Jersey Democrats need to make sure whoever they nominate doesn’t have a hidden clip of them advocating for free gender affirmation surgery for prisoners.

Meet voters where they are. Fourth, Democrats need to talk about how people live, not try to tell them what to think. It is true that the rate of price increases has slowed and that unemployment is close to the Federal Reserve’s targets. But working class people don’t care when milk still costs over $4.00 a gallon and they need two jobs to make ends meet. It’s great to say we need more affordable housing, but what about the people who are too rich to qualify but too poor to buy?

While it is clear that 2024 was a disaster for Democrats, 2025 need not be. Democrats have the messages and policies they need to win. They just need to use them.

Matthew Hale is an associate professor of political science and public affairs at Seton Hall University.