The 50 cm snowfall lottery: will an Ontario community win it before December?

We knew southern Ontario was long overdue for lake effect snowfall, or just snow in general, but no one could have predicted a threat of 50 centimeters for the first spell of snow this year.

After one of the warmest autumns on record in Canada, a major reversal of the trend is underway across the country. The Prairies, after experiencing a major snowstorm this weekend, are about to experience extremely cold temperatures that will drop into the -20s, even -30s for some.

SEE ALSO: The coldest air of the season will arrive in Canada starting in December

And now it’s Ontario’s turn to face the cold and snow. We saw significant snow accumulations in many areas of the traditional snow belt near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Indeed, could we see 50 cm of snow by the end of the weekend? Let’s break down the possibility.

An outbreak of Arctic air is expected across the Prairies this week as a Siberian air mass crossed the North Pole last weekend. It will cross the Prairies and eventually make its way to Ontario, but it will be modified (warmed) by the time it reaches the Great Lakes. This is one of the missing ingredients for snowfall this season.

Temperatures are expected to slowly drop through the week as colder air continues to be brought in by northwesterly winds, with below normal temperatures expected late in the week and through the weekend – the first time in a few months. As temperatures drop, snow will fall rather than rain in most areas, but the question is, how much is expected by the weekend?