Editorial: US exit from Paris climate accord under Trump would create future woes

From heatwaves to torrential rains to wildfires, countries around the world have been hit by severe natural disasters triggered by global warming. No country is immune from such damage and it is essential to avoid hampering international cooperation.

Former US President Donald Trump, known for his cautious stance on climate action, is returning to the White House after his re-election. During his first term that began in 2017, Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which stipulates international rules to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The United States returned to the agreement under the subsequent administration of Joe Biden, but Trump, in his election promise, promised to withdraw from it again.

This could constitute a major setback for international measures to combat global warming. Countries must work together to get the president to change his mind.

Last year, the global average temperature reached a record high, and 2024 is expected to surpass it to become the hottest on record. The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is hanging by a thread.

The dynamic of reducing greenhouse gases risks running out of steam

At the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in Azerbaijan, which opened on November 11, countries’ positions are being questioned as the world considers ways to get out of this precarious situation.

The main objective is to increase aid from developed countries to developing countries. Currently, this amounts to about $100 billion (about 15 trillion yen) a year, but developing countries say they need more than $1 trillion a year to mitigate the growing damage caused by global warming and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Japan, the United States and Europe are, however, cautious about increasing the amount of their aid. They are asking China, the world’s second largest economy after the United States and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and other emerging countries to share the burden.

With the re-emergence of Trump, it is possible that the momentum for increased financial support will be dampened. This in turn could weaken the enthusiasm of developing countries that have tried to reduce their emissions while counting on this support.

If Trump announces another withdrawal from the Paris Agreement when he takes office in January, it will become difficult to obtain cooperation from emerging countries to reduce global emissions.

The repercussions would be more severe than during Trump’s first term, when the withdrawal period actually lasted only three months, since another withdrawal would last at least until the president’s term expires in 2029.

Trump has focused on his own country’s oil and gas industries, advocating increased production of fossil fuels with the slogan “Drill, baby, drill.” During his first term, he put climate action on the back burner, rolling back previous environmental regulations.

Under the Biden administration, the Inflation Reduction Act, which promotes investments in decarbonization, was passed, but Trump is expected to return to it as well.

However, the global trend is towards reducing emissions. Companies that fail to adopt environmental measures have been excluded from supply chains and institutional investors have begun to shy away. In our time, decarbonization industries, including renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, are driving economic growth.

In the United States, some states support environmental measures, with California for example promoting electric vehicles, and they have urged companies to make innovative changes.

Around 5,000 entities, including local communities and businesses, have set targets to reduce emissions by more than 50% by 2030. Together, they represent more than 70% of the country’s GDP. It should be the role of the federal government to support such initiatives. This also has many advantages from the point of view of strengthening industrial competitiveness.

International collaboration put to the test

The United States, a key player in climate negotiations, has long changed its approach with each new administration, leaving the international community distraught. Bill Clinton’s administration pushed for the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, which for the first time required developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. But then the George W. Bush administration reversed course and announced it would not implement the protocol, saying it would weaken the country’s international competitiveness, delaying the protocol’s entry into force. . Barack Obama’s government, following in China’s footsteps, ratified the Paris Agreement. The decision by the two countries, which account for more than 40% of global emissions, paved the way for the agreement to enter into force early.

The Paris Agreement calls on all countries and regions to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It must not be emptied of its substance at the whim of a country pursuing its own short-term interests.

The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) predicts that if conditions remain unchanged, the increase in temperatures could reach 3.1°C by the end of this century. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a leaders’ meeting at COP29: “There is no time to lose. …Climate action is not optional. It is an imperative. »

What the world needs today is a spirit of caring to overcome the climate crisis together. The unity of the global community is being tested.