Are the Rockets good enough to hold on at the NBA trade deadline?

The Houston Rockets are howling at the moon.

I can talk about how they have that guy in them, but if you’ve watched them play for a minute this season, you don’t need my help assessing their canine tendencies.

There are many ways to win 50+ games in the NBA. You can be more talented than everyone else with a good enough infrastructure. You can play with discipline and control, beat bad teams and divisional opponents, win your home games, and just play at a high enough level that the 82 game season gives you enough opportunities.

Or you can be that team that tries to rip your throat out every game. It’s not just hustle, because even bad teams have guys who will work for it. It’s a collective attitude that means you want to win every possession. Every dribble. Every pass. Every shot.

Houston is that team this year, third in schedule-adjusted defense, third in rim defense and fourth in 3 defense, and eighth in steal percentage.

If you want proof of how stupid they are, the Rockets’ biggest praise came for two players coming off their bench, the aptly named “Terror Twins” Tari Eason and Amen Thompson. Space City Scoop analyzed what their defensive metrics indicate about their breakout seasons.

Thompson has been so impressive, including huge plays like the one he made on offense late in the Cup win over Wolves last Tuesday, that a league insider texted me this week: “Amen Thompson could be their guy in the future.

As in “The Guy”. As in “The Star of the Franchise”.

It’s just good times and fun vibes with the Terror Twins and how good Houston has been overall.

Much of their success with starters is due to… Dillon Brooks?! That’s right, Dillon The Villain has been one of the most impactful players in the league this season, a fact that no one seems to want to acknowledge due to preconceived notions about him after the Memphis debacle.

Remember the “Get Ready to Learn Chinese” memes? Instead, Brooks had the 18th best on/off differential in waste-free time according to Cleaning The Glass.

Space City Scoops mentioned that the Brooks contract had aged like fine wine. Now, I don’t expect this to last. Brooks shot very well and made huge shot after huge shot, but regression is likely. When that happens, people won’t remember how important he was in that early start.

If it holds? That’s another matter.

Meanwhile, Alperen Şengün shrugged off a slow start and ranks 14th in EPM on DunksAndThrees.com. There still appears to be some uncertainty on Houston’s part that Şengün is the franchise guy, but he is absolutely a player that is going to help them win.

And then there’s Jalen Green. Green got off to a good start for about 10 days and turned back into a pumpkin. Green is fifth worst in TrueShooting% added to Basketball-Reference. It would be nice if he was a top-tier playmaker (he’s good to good, not great) or a defender (he’s the worst defender among the starters).

The Rockets explored trading Green last season, according to multiple league sources (and multiple reports). That’s not uncommon for a player who benefited from the extension he had last summer when Houston agreed to a three-year, $106 million extension.

Regardless of Houston’s future building a contender, Green is probably the odd man out.

The Rockets were linked to trade talks for Kevin Durant last season, then short-changed KD’s current team by trading all of their future picks to Brooklyn. They were linked to Giannis Antetokounmpo as a potential suitor if Giannis asked several weeks ago. The Athletic has refuted that report), but it’s worth noting that Houston — like most teams — tells national reporters one thing and local reporters another.

You can easily argue that Houston shouldn’t trade at all. Thompson, Sengun, maybe Reed Sheppard could become anything, even a superstar! But this team’s model looks a lot more like teams that have the structure of a contender, but not the ability to score well enough against well-lit defenses. And that’s OK! They are young and not ready for this. But in the long run, having four guys who could be No. 2 on a title team is an exciting and dangerous place to be.

Houston must be careful, however. They need to not just make a superstar trade, difficult enough, but the right trade. What does it look like? Well, let’s go back to 2012. A Houston Rockets team that had been competitive for half a decade without a big-name star accumulated equity (the Suns’ picks), then cashed it in for a potential star in a sixth role. man named James. Harden.

It can’t be Jimmy Butler. It can’t be Joel Embiid. It can’t even really be Durant. This has to be a star poised to become a superstar on the younger 26 side. That kind of player, alongside any combination of their young players (Sengun, Thompson, a quietly improving Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard), prepares them.

Houston’s regular season resume looks like a contender. Their team profile looks like a team capable of making the conference finals. Defense, efficiency, and DAWG spirit can take you far, but not all the way.

The question is how to capitalize on what seems like endless potential without making a misstep in the superstar department. This year is super fun for the Rockets.

This summer, the big questions will have to be answered.

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As we begin play on Monday, here are the teams ranking in the top five in schedule-adjusted offense and defense at DunksAndThrees:

1. Boston Celtics (first in offense, ninth in defense): Boston’s defense isn’t quite what it was last year. They’re still rampaging from threes, so it probably doesn’t matter, but it’s something to watch as they’re even more reliant on dropping threes than last year.

2. Dallas Mavericks (fourth in offense, ninth in defense): I don’t think anyone realizes how good the Mavericks have been, even with Luka Doncic out until Sunday night. With Doncic back and putting up MVP numbers in his return, there’s a good chance the Mavericks become the “it” team in the West before Christmas.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder (seventh offense, first defense): Playing OKC continues to feel like what one coach called last year, “a root canal.” They trade everything, contest everything, and lead the league in steals. Their shots haven’t even caught up yet. Of the three, this is the team I am most confident will finish in the top five in both categories.