Men’s college basketball panic meter after holiday week flops

College basketball’s holiday week is always chaotic, but this year’s action took things to another level. Five men’s teams in the top 10 in the previous week’s AP poll lost games, with four of those five losing games to unranked opponents. UConn’s disastrous 0–3 trip to the Maui Invitational grabbed most of the headlines, but Gonzaga losing to West Virginia, Houston falling to San Diego State and Alabama losing a game to Oregon were all surprising results. And that’s not even talking about the brutal weeks for teams with high preseason expectations like Arizona, North Carolina and Creighton.

Which teams’ bad Thanksgiving weeks were a worrying sign for things to come and which ones will we consider a blip? Here’s a preview Sports IllustratedThis is the level of concern of several top teams.

Holiday Week Damage: Losses against the Memphis Tigers, Colorado Buffaloes and Dayton Flyers

The machine that was the UConn program over the past two years caused an all-systems failure on Maui, so much so that Dan Hurley indicated he would never play in another tournament like this again until he would be at UConn. Part of that is due to distinct financial realities that make the trip to Maui less appealing, but UConn’s collapse on the field over three days convincingly demonstrates why many coaches don’t want to play those three-games in threes anymore. day formats. After an overtime loss to Memphis on Nov. 25, things went completely off the rails, losing to a Colorado team picked near the bottom of the Big 12 on Nov. 26 and getting smoked by Atlantic 10 foe Dayton on Wednesday. UConn isn’t as bad as it showed in Hawaii, but make no mistake, the Huskies have obvious flaws.

The most obvious problem is on defense, where all the fears about the Huskies’ ability to remain elite on that front in a world without Donovan Clingan have been realized and then some. Not only did UConn’s center duo of Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr. have foul trouble, but UConn’s perimeter defense was a sieve. Transfer guard Aidan Mahaney and sophomore Solo Ball have been a tough watch on that end of the court, but their backups (Hassan Diarra and Jayden Ross) aren’t as reliable on the offensive end. Hurley has been an elite defensive coach since his time at Rhode Island, so I would bet on UConn that he will find a way to improve on that side of the ball, even if it’s not quite up to par with the high standards of Huskies.

The other major concern was the point guard play. Hurley has invested heavily in Diarra, who had backed Tristen Newton for the past two years, as the Huskies’ answer at the position, but his limitations are obvious. Mahaney was excellent at Saint Mary’s on the offensive end, but he is more of a combo guard than a true point guard and was unplayable at times in Maui. Hurley now seems intent on force-feeding freshman Ahmad Nowell, but that doesn’t seem likely to save UConn’s season.

Is UConn an NCAA tournament team? Yes. How many more of them there are than that remains to be seen, but a third consecutive national title seems very far away for the moment.

Concern meter: 6/10

Holiday Week Damage: Losses to the Oklahoma Sooners and West Virginia Mountaineers

At 3-4, Arizona is below .500 in December for the first time since Sean Miller’s rookie season in 2009-10. The schedule hasn’t been easy, but it’s still a shock considering how high the expectations were in the preseason and Arizona’s consistent excellence under Tommy Lloyd. And while each loss individually is explainable, losing all four is well worth the alarm bells ringing.

Arizona’s most obvious flaw is its lack of shooting on the offensive end. Arizona is shooting just 26 percent from deep in its four losses, and that number is more of a personnel issue than cold shooting that will eventually backfire. Starting guards Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis in the backcourt, a 4-man who made just 12 threes last season in Trey Townsend and a non-shooting center (either Motiejus Krivas or Tobe Awaka) were a spacing issue on paper that came to fruition. That’s less of a problem against overmatched opponents that Arizona can physically overwhelm, but the Wildcats quickly get bogged down in the half-court against teams with comparable athleticism.

If you’re going to play such a lethal, athletic-focused lineup, you’d hope you’d be at least elite on the defensive end. Instead, Arizona has been outside the top 150 nationally defensively against the top 100 teams, according to T-Rank. The Wildcats are committing too many fouls, not turning teams over at a high rate and giving up a ton of threes early on. Losing neutral-court games against Oklahoma and West Virginia last week is a big concern given what Arizona expects in Big 12 play. Missing the NCAA tournament is not out of the question.

Concern meter: 9/10

Holiday Week Damage: Losses to the Auburn Tigers and Michigan State Spartans

Considering the Tar Heels trailed by 21 early in the second half of their Maui Invitational opener against Dayton, North Carolina is fortunate to have escaped the island with at least a win. The Heels’ three star guards have all lived up to preseason expectations and more, but the rest of the team is falling behind and has created some serious liabilities.

North Carolina has given up at least 1.15 points per possession in the four games against top-100 teams this season, a largely unsustainable number if the Heels are hoping for a deep run in March. The root cause of these defensive woes is UNC’s lack of size: its center field of Jalen Washington and Ven-Allen Lubin is not worthy of a blue blood like Carolina, and the only other player in over 6′ 6″ in the regular rotation is inconsistent. PF Jae’Lyn Withers.

Meanwhile, transfer combo forward Cade Tyson (Belmont) has been a bust, falling out of the Heels’ rotation entirely in Maui, while five-star freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell have had stellar starts. uneven season. Powell’s 18 points against Michigan State could be a foundational performance, and he has plenty of defensive upside if he can earn big minutes consistently.

The floor here is pretty high given the quality of UNC’s guards, but the ceiling seems capped given the poor frontcourt play and porous defense.

Concern Meter: 7/10

Holiday Week Damage: Aztecs losses to Alabama Crimson Tide and San Diego State

Two of Houston’s three losses (Alabama, Auburn) came on neutral grounds against elite teams. But for a program that hasn’t lost more than six games in a season since 2019-20, the Cougars’ 4-3 start is sure to set off alarm bells. At the very least, it’s an early sign that replacing Jamal Shead at point guard hasn’t been as easy as hoped.

The heart of Houston basketball under Kelvin Sampson has been total domination of the glass and battle of the turnover. Houston is still pretty good in these categories, but is showing some cracks from its usual complete takeover of both categories. The Cougars allowed 20 offensive rebounds against Alabama, 14 against San Diego State and tied Auburn on the glass. Houston hasn’t been as disruptive in those games either, forcing no more than 15 turnovers in each of those three games and only seven against SDSU. If you can play Houston on a largely level playing field in terms of backboards and turnover margin, you have a real chance of beating the Cougars, and that’s what teams have done up until here.

It was in these more balanced games that the Shead Effect really kicked in: The Cougars’ longtime star point guard was an elite disruptor who won his team many extra possessions and lived in the paint offensively. Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan has been solid but not spectacular thus far, and neither LJ Cryer nor Emanuel Sharp are off to a particularly hot start from beyond the arc.

Houston should be the pretty clear favorite in its next 11 games after this rough start, and the Cougars are still in the top five in KenPom, so the sky is certainly not falling. But early on, Houston didn’t look as dominant as some hoped.

Concern Meter: 3/10

Holiday Week Damage: Loss to Illinois Fighting Illini

Arkansas’ loss to a ranked Illinois team doesn’t ring the same alarm bells on paper as some of the other teams on this list, but the film of this game is pretty worrisome for the future prospects of the Razorbacks. And given the Hogs’ light non-conference schedule, Arkansas’ early-season struggles against good teams could set things up poorly for Selection Sunday.

Illinois is one of the most potent offenses in the country, but seeing Arkansas get completely torched for 40 minutes with no real adjustments on Thursday was pretty concerning. Getting Tennessee transfer Jonas Aidoo back to full health would eventually help the defense, but playing so much with this collection of smaller guards seems likely to tank the Hogs’ defense a bit. Beyond ball screen defense, Arkansas’ highly touted transfer guards DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis have struggled. Wagner has a higher turnover rate than assist rate, hasn’t been overly efficient, and is still an inconsistent three-point shooter, while Davis was very quiet against Illinois and only scored two figures only twice in seven games to start the season.

If Arkansas isn’t an elite three-point shooting team, isn’t particularly good on the boards and struggles to defend on ball screens, what are the Razorbacks? In the loaded SEC, wins won’t be particularly easy to come by. It’s early, but this looks much more like a middling team in college basketball’s best conference than a contender.

Concern meter: 6/10

The NCAA launched its first NET rankings of the year on Monday. The Tennessee Volunteers came in at No. 1, with fellow Auburn at No. 2 and the Gonzaga Bulldogs, Duke Blue Devils and Pittsburgh Panthers rounding out the top five. These rankings are always based on a small sample and should not be interpreted too heavily, but some thoughts on what the initial ranking might mean: