Conservatives gain ground with young voters in Quebec

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OTTAWA — A poll showing the Conservatives in the lead among young voters hit the Quebec political scene like lightning this week. And this is all the more remarkable in a province that remains generally suspicious of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

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In October, all eyes were on the Bloc Québécois and its leader Yves-François Blanchet, who had threatened to overthrow the Trudeau government if two bills were not adopted, including one aimed at increasing social security benefits. Old age security for all people aged 65 and over. .

At the time, the Bloc had a comfortable lead in the polls in Quebec. A Léger-Québecor poll places the separatists in the lead with 35 percent in the province and even a slim lead among 18 to 34 year olds who are essentially statistically tied with the Liberals and Conservatives at 25 percent.

But as the debate on old age security reached the House of Commons and the notion of a generation gap emerged, the Bloc was on the defensive.

“In recent days, I have heard people go so far as to say that catching up and giving back some purchasing power to seniors would be terrible for young people,” Blanchet said at the time.

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“The young people of Quebec, and I am very happy about it, have a standard of living, a level of prosperity and a level of wealth that we could never have imagined,” he added in response to a question from Green Party Leader Elizabeth May.

Today, in November, even though the Bloc is still comfortably in the lead with 35 percent, Léger/Québecor publishes a surprising poll. Among 18 to 34 year olds, the Bloc is now fourth with 15 percent and the Conservatives are first with 33 percent.

For the Conservatives, this represents a gain of nine points with this group of voters.

“Our common-sense conservative solutions resonate with young Quebecers, unlike the Bloc, which has nothing to offer to fight the rising cost of living and housing,” wrote Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on the social networks after the publication of the figures. He said young people want the government to cut taxes and eliminate GST on new homes to help them become homeowners.

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“If conservative values ​​are gaining popularity among young people, it is because Justin Trudeau has broken the promise of Canada by sacrificing the future of future generations with his inflationary policies which have doubled the cost of housing,” he said. he added.

And the Bloc seems to have understood this. Yves-François Blanchet told the story of his own son, a 26-year-old college professor, who recently told him that he would never be able to buy a house. Blanchet realized this and wanted to find solutions.

He noted that “urban youth under 25” tend to lean toward the political left on an individual rather than a collective level. And they are faced with real “economic challenges and can no longer dream of housing for their family”.

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“Ultimately, we need to engage these young people more and better,” he admitted.

It seems that the Conservatives have already understood this. Rodolphe Husny, former advisor to Stephen Harper’s government, pointed out that for the past year, Poilievre has been targeting the vote of young Canadians, particularly on social networks. If Quebecers resisted at the beginning, this no longer seems to be the case.

“I think this is simply the result of over a year and more of very focused communications from Mr. Poilievre on inflation, on the deficit, on the debt and especially on housing,” said Husny in an interview with the National Post.

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In Quebec, the idea of ​​a more conservative youth has gained ground. Since the release of the Léger poll earlier this week, the media have turned their attention to this group which previously seemed marginalized in the public debate.

Sébastien Dallaire, Léger’s executive vice-president for Eastern Canada, said the latest poll also shows a surge in favor of the provincial Conservative Party. According to its data, there seems to be “a clear movement among 18-34 year olds”.

But will this hold when elections are called? In Quebec, answering this question can be perilous. The electorate is known to change quickly and dramatically in a very short period of time.

“Uniting the vote of the disaffected is a possibility and that is what the Conservative Party in Quebec could possibly bet on because at the moment, there are a lot of dissatisfied people,” declared Dallaire.

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But even with 24 percent support, the Conservatives could struggle to elect a dozen MPs in this province. Pollsters and political insiders have found concentrated support for the party in the Quebec region.

Even with this new support, the Conservatives are not guaranteed to add seats in the next election. For example, the member for Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Richard Martel, elected for the first time in 2018 in this nationalist region, now finds himself behind the Bloc candidate Marc St-Hilaire in a recent local poll carried out by Segma.

In fact, the Bloc is almost 20 points ahead of the Conservatives. Polling aggregator 338Canada recently described this riding as a “toss-up” between the two parties.

In the meantime, the Bloc could bank on the division of votes in the province between the Liberals, the NDP and the Conservatives.

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The outlook remains bleak for the liberals. They are now fighting for second place in their last stronghold in the country and, last month, they lost five points in the province.

“It’s still a little better, relatively speaking, in Quebec than elsewhere. But it’s difficult even in Quebec for Justin Trudeau,” Dallaire said.

National Post
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