Cooper Rush’s Cowboys fare better with a conservative offense

Cooper Rush has played in eight games in 2024, starting four while logging a total of 320 snaps. During that span, he passed the ball 185 times, completing 112, for a total of 1,008 passing yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. His 48.0 Pro Football Focus grade ranks him last in the NFL by a fairly significant margin and his -0.027 EPA+CPOE composite score backs up such a claim (also last in the NFL).

It’s safe to say that at this point, the Cowboys know what they have in Rush. Despite two consecutive victories, he is not a quarterback who lifts a team. And despite calls to open up the offense and take more shots down the field, Mike McCarthy appears to be doing the right thing with his backup QB by taking a conservative approach.

The Cowboys’ Week 14 opponent makes a case for such a conservative offense. Bengals’ zone-happy defense ranks 28th^th in EPA/dropback, 29^th in peak, the EPA has authorized and 30^th in total EPA allowed. They are vulnerable to both the run and pass and as long as Dallas plays within themselves, they should be able to be successful against the Cincinnati defense.

In situations like this, it will be tempting for the Cowboys to take shots down the field. This is not only unnecessary, but it requires Rush to succeed in an area of personal weakness. According to FTN data presented by Doug Analytics, Rush has thrown catchable deep balls on less than 30% of his attempts this season. He’s also bottom three in attempts and catchability percentage.

PFF tracking shows Rush attempted 16 passes of 20 yards or more and completed only four for a 25 percent completion rate. One of those passes qualified as a big throw and one pass qualified as a turnover-worthy throw. This is arguably the biggest inefficiency in his game, prompting McCarthy to avoid deep passes with Rush at the helm.

Even in the 10-19 yard range, Rush has struggled in 2024. His completion percentage sits at just 40 percent and that intermediate range is the poorest on the field, with him throwing three times as many throws worthy of a turnover than important throws.

Even though the Cowboys’ running game and defense have struggled in 2024, these are areas that Dallas simply must rely on to win games. Combined with a dink and dunk passing attack that plays into the numbers, the Cowboys are best positioned to win games behind Rush at QB.

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