Why Rahul Gandhi is quickly losing the support of his allies

When a ruling party fails to reach its own majority in parliament and depends on its allies to cross the majority threshold, the prime minister is generally considered vulnerable. A similar situation is emerging in the 18th Lok Sabha. There is a discernible expression of distrust in Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of Opposition (LoP), from the INDIA bloc partners, which is reflected in both their behavior and their statements.

The LoP is not directly elected but is appointed by the President. As doubts grow among INDIA bloc partners about the Congress party’s ability to be the linchpin of the alliance, Rahul Gandhi risks becoming a ‘lame duck’ in the coming months without the active support of his allies . His attempts to impose his idiosyncrasies on his fellow opposition MPs have alienated key Congress allies.

A short-lived glory?

After the Lok Sabha elections, the political influence of Narendra Modi seems to be weakening. After two rounds of National Assembly elections, which saw the Congress suffer defeat while the BJP and NDA staged a remarkable recovery, Modi’s shine has returned with a bang. Rahul Gandhi’s moment of glory came after June 4, when his party’s strength doubled and he was recognized as LoP by the President. His newfound fame continued during his visit to the United States, but faded after the Haryana elections. Maharashtra has further diminished its position, and recent actions by allies suggest that the glow of June 4 has faded.

The election of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra from Wayanad initially energized Congress workers, but in the absence of a defined role, she seems to emerge as a mere extension of her elder sister. Rather than carving out a distinct identity, she is seen as a clone of Rahul Gandhi. It began to reflect his way of addressing the public.

The Indian bloc could collapse

Rahul Gandhi’s resort to soliloquy has become a political liability. His hackneyed slogans – “Chowkidar Chor Hai” and attacks on Adani-Ambani – failed to garner electoral support. The Supreme Court has criticized him for some of his unfounded remarks, but he remains undeterred. His narrative that the Constitution was in danger created a slight stir, helping the Congress almost double its seats in the Lok Sabha. However, his predominance within the party has not led to wide acceptance of his leadership among the INDIA bloc parties. It was named LoP because the Congress holds the largest number of seats in opposition, but the INDIA bloc is yet to form a coherent parliamentary front. The alliance is limited to contesting a few elections together, without decisive leadership. A Samajwadi Party spokesperson recently said that the INDIA bloc “now exists largely in the media.”

The INDIA bloc has failed to appoint an organizer or identify a leader after a year of discussions. Attempts by non-Congress parties to elevate Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge as a central figure in the alliance met with cold responses from his own party and were quickly forgotten. Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress, after initially suggesting the bloc’s name and then that of Kharge, chose to go it alone, ignoring both the Congress and the CPI(M) in West Bengal. Trinamool not only increased its number of MLAs but also retained its primacy in the recent Assembly by-elections, positioning itself as the dominant party in the state.

Why Rahul is losing support

After the June 4 Lok Sabha results and Rahul Gandhi’s aggressive stance as LoP in the first session of the 18th Lok Sabha, he seemed all set to emerge as the main challenger to Narendra Modi. However, Trinamool’s Rajya Sabha leader Derek O’Brien’s recent remarks, followed by Mamata Banerjee’s assertion, “I can lead the INDIA bloc… if they can’t run the show”, have dampened his prospects . The support of personalities like Sharad Pawar, Akhilesh Yadav (SP) and Tejaswi Yadav (RJD) for Mamata’s leadership only highlights the dwindling support for Rahul Gandhi.

Rahul Gandhi’s insistence on pursuing a handful of narratives has caused further divisions within the opposition. Trinamool and Samajwadi Party MPs have shunned Congress-led protests at Parliament House in Makar Dwar, with their allies saying the focus on their personal agendas prevents the opposition from tackling more pressing national issues, while the Room is constantly disturbed.
When Rahul Gandhi was blocked last week from traveling to Sambhal on the Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border, a ragtag group of around 200 Congress supporters – reflecting the party’s diminished capacity to mobilize the masses – protested, claiming that he had been prevented from carrying out his “constitutional mandate”. duty”.

How the LoP position has evolved

The Leader of Opposition (LoP) is appointed by the Speaker of the Lok Sabha. Contrary to claims that it is a constitutional position, the LoP is actually a statutory position, created by an Act of Parliament in 1977. Constitutional positions are those established by the founding fathers of the Republic and are mentioned in the Constitution of India. The LoP, however, is not included in the Constitution.

The Indian Parliament did not have a recognized LoP until the Congress split in 1969. The leader of the largest opposition party, if its strength exceeds 10% of the total membership of the House, is recognized by the President as LoP. The Fourth Lok Sabha had Dr Ramsubhag Singh of the Congress(O) as LoP from 17 December 1969 until its premature dissolution on 27 December 1970. The Fifth Lok Sabha in 1971, like the First (1952), the Second (1957) , and Third (1962) Lok Sabhas, had no LoP.

The post of LoP initially emerged as a position for the leader of the Congress Party in Parliament whenever the Grand Old Party lost elections. YB Chavan was LoP in 1977, and after the Congress split that year, CM Stephen became LoP. There was no LoP in the 7th and 8th Lok Sabhas, the last houses in which the Congress held a full majority. The 9th Lok Sabha saw defeated Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi as LoP. After that, there were several LoPs including Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani, PV Narasimha Rao and Sushma Swaraj.

The post of LoP was vacant in the 16th and 17th Lok Sabhas as the Congress won only 52 and 44 seats respectively, short of the required threshold of 54 seats. With 99 seats, Rahul Gandhi is currently the LoP in the 18th Lok Sabha. Just like in the heydays of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, the first two terms of Narendra Modi also saw the Lok Sabha without a LoP. Now, with allies expressing doubts over Rahul Gandhi’s ability to lead the opposition front, it appears Modi’s third term could see a ‘lame duck LoP’.

A judgment from Allahabad

Meanwhile, political circles are abuzz with speculation regarding the outcome of Public Interest Litigation (PIL) Number 831 of 2024, scheduled for hearing by a bench of the Allahabad High Court at Prayagraj on December 19. Rahul Gandhi is among the 13 respondents. . The issue has already been raised in interviews with Subramaniam Swamy, and December 19 will mark the first mention of the case in a High Court. On June 12, 1975, a judgment of the Allahabad High Court significantly changed the course of Indian politics. Will Allahabad, seat of the Nehru family, further change the trajectory of national politics?

(Shubhabrata Bhattacharya is a retired editor and public affairs commentator)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author